PART THREE: Can the 5-Count Find Controlled Shooters?
Last issue I showed how the 5-Count could give a player a ?monetary edge? even against random shooters. Now, we?ll look at how the 5-Count performs with controlled shooters at the table.
The second proposition that the Captain stated was that the 5-Count was the best way to limit losses while waiting for the conscious or unconscious rhythmic roller or controlled shooter to appear. That it acted as a sort of ?range finder? and that once it honed in on a controlled shooter, you could make craps a positive expectation.
Catlin did a simulation designed to find out whether the 5-Count could actually do this. He simulated 10 players (Player #1 through Player #10) with Player #1being the player whose statistics are reported. The program assumed that Player #1 was a random shooter who uses the 5-count on others when he plays. Catlin has Player #1 always betting on himself right from the come-out but for players #2 through #10 he waits for the 5-Count to finish and then he bets on the Come or Pass (whichever is available at that point) and takes double odds. As in the first simulation above, the odds are always working. The twist in this simulation is that Player #10 is a controlled shooter having an SRR [Seven-to-Rolls-Ratio] of 1 to 7. Random SRR is 1 to 6.
Catlin ran 10,000,000 rounds (which is over 100,000,000 games) and got the following results: Player #1 had an edge of 0.18 percent over the house. Player #1 bet on Player #10 5,632,885 times and on Player Nine 5,084,975 times. The 5-Count selected the skilled shooter 10.7 percent more often than it selected the random shooter. While this did not prove that the 5-Count will, in general, reduce the house edge [in this simulation the 5-Counter needed a shooter with a SRR of 1 to 7 to flip it over], the simulation clearly shows that if there is a skilled shooter at the table the 5-Count will select him with a higher frequency than the rest of the players and will thereby reduce the house edge or, as in this case, give the player the edge. The simulation produced wins of $527,947.80 for Player #1 from total wagers of $292,716,290.
What would happen to a 5-Counter who found himself at the tables with such controlled shooters as Sharpshooter or Dominator or others in the Golden Touch crew sporting SRR of close to/or at 1 to 8? Catlin ran these figures through his simulation and this is what he found: ?Reran program with SRR 1 to 8; there were 20 million rounds of play which produced in excess of 200 million games. This time Player #1was on Player #10, a total of 12,152,952 times while on Player #9 a total of 10,165,524 times. The result was a $6,852,787.80 profit with $596,017,946.00 put at risk. This represents a 1.15 percent return per dollar to the player.?
Keep in mind that Player #1 who is showing this profit is not a controlled shooter and does not know that a controlled shooter is at his table. He?s just utilizing the 5-Count as a normal part of his play. Yet, by making good house edge bets, Pass and Come with double odds, he has managed to get a real edge over the casino. Factor in comps now and you can see that he has a rather hefty monetary edge as well.
How the 5-Count Works with Controlled Shooters
But what if you know that someone is a controlled shooter at your table? What if you?re the controlled shooter? Can the 5-Count help you maximize your wins? Catlin did another simulation with 20 million rounds with 10 shooters each round. In this scenario, the 5-Counter uses the 5-Count on the other nine players but does not use it on himself, as he is a controlled shooter or Rhythmic Roller (RR). The Bet-All Player obviously bets on all shooters. Everyone is placing the 6 and 8 and the wagers are always on. Here?s what Catlin discovered:
1 to 7
1 to 7.5
1 to 8
Bet-All Total Wager
5-C (RR) Total Wager
5-C (RR) Win/Loss
Interestingly enough, when someone is at the table with a SRR of 1 to 7.5, the game is positive for everyone placing the bet of 6 and 8. However, the difference in expectation between the 5-Counter who controls the dice at the above rates and the Bet-All player are profound. The 5-Count dice-controller is wagering approximately half as much money but winning an incredible amount more!
Let?s take a look at how the 5-Count has created such a dichotomy. Translated into small numbers that are easily digestible, the Bet-All player can be said to wager approximately $6,310 on the 6 and 8 with an expectation of losing about $30 when a controlled shooter with a 1 to 7 SRR is at the table; win $1 when a controlled shooter with a 1 to 7.5 SRR is at the table; and win $32 when a shooter with a 1 to 8 SRR is at the table.
Contrast this with the 5-Counter who is a dice controller. If the 5-Counter wagers the same amount of money, that is, $6,310, we can approximate that he will win around $36 when shooting at a 1 to 7 SRR; win about $100 when shooting with a 1 to 7.5 SRR; and win about $160 if his SRR is 1 to 8. Keep in mind, that the placing of the 6 and 8 comes in with a 1.5 percent house edge, so the 5-Counter who controls the dice has not only overcome the house edge against him, he?s made a nice profit for himself ? all this at a table with nine other players, all random shooters. Again, factor in comps and the monetary edge is impressive.
Dr. Don Catlin?s massive simulations leave no doubt that the 5-Count is everything the Captain said it was. It?s utilization can, when proper bets are made, reduce the house?s hit on your total bankroll, give you a monetary edge in the overwhelming majority of comping situations, locate and exploit the rhythmic rollers or controlled shooters who happen to be at your table, and effectively increase your profits and edge when you are the controlled shooter or when you know someone else at the table is. The 5-Count is the only method of shooter qualification that has withstood such simulations and analyses, and come up smelling like, well, like the winner you?ll be if you use it.
And what of the players who say that the 5-Count takes too much discipline to play or that it?s too boring and can be disheartening at times? They can look at the above figures and ask themselves a simple question: In the simulations above, would you rather be the Bet-All player or the 5-Counter? If you say that you would rather be the Bet-All player you should not be at a craps table but on a psychiatrist?s coach!
And what of those critics who say that any shooter qualification method is as good as any other shooter qualification method which is to say there is nothing special about the 5-Count? Just say two words: Prove it.
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