Can You Fold Aces Preflop?

[Dice Man]

Originally Posted by RevStu

If those were the results, then yes, it'd be unreasonable. But do an experiment for me. Today, right here and now, toss a coin 52 times and tell us the outcome. See how close to 50/50 you get. (I just did it here and got 29/23, or 56%/44% - a statistically huge 12% variance from the even odds, and bigger than the supposed advantage held by the AA.)

Well in your example, you were 60% likely to have between 23-29 heads (or tails) land. So the result you got was more likely to happen than not. Every time you do that experiment you'll have a 90% chance of getting between 20-32 heads.

What is with this tangent in your argument anyway? Are you now telling us that you don't believe probability theory is accurate enough at predicting results in the short term? It might not be completely accurate, but it's the most accurate theory you could have to predict chance.

Is your coin-flipping analogy supposed to say about the AA example, that even though we predict you quintuple up 50% of the time and bust out 50% of the time, probably you will either double up or bust out 60-70% of the time or something silly like that, if we take our sample to be something small like 20 trials (how many times in your poker life are you going to encounter situations like the one discussed here)?. But you seem to be pessimistically inferring that you would probably end up busting out 70% of the time over those 20 hands, but you're just as likely to quintuple up 70% of the time. The fact is that your best theory is that you will quintuple up/bust out 50% of the time. Remember that in poker you can cash out how good a player you are in the short term in expected dollars. If you play well and get unlucky you make more expected dollars than real dollars, and if you play badly and get lucky you make more real dollars than expected dollars. Before the showdown occurs with the 4 other players and your AA, you will make a lot more expected dollars by calling than by folding. Even if you are on the bubble of a regular tournament, they are so top-heavy in prizes that you could stand to make 10x or even 100x more expected dollars by calling here.

Another situation (to the satellite bubble scenario) where you could reasonably fold AA pre-flop would be the following. Suppose you are playing a massive tournament with say 500 cash places, and there are currently 501 players left. There are no antes and you are dealt your AA on the SB so you know you can fold and survive another 7+ hands without cost. You can fold if your stack is so small that even if you quintupled up, the chances of you making more than the bottom prize is minimal. Suppose that when the next player goes out and there will be 500 players left that 400-500 get $1000 and 300-400 get $1300, and the average stack of those currently placed between 400th and 500th is 10,000 chips, and you are sitting there with 1,000, then to call the coin-flip with AA where you stand to get 5,000 chips half the time and bust out half the time, is pretty stupid. Winning the coin-flip and having 5000 chips probably only makes your stack worth about $expected1100. Folding your AA makes your hand worth about $expected 990 (owing to the small chance none of the 500 goes out in the next 7-8 hands). So calling with the AA would give you expected value of about $550 whereas folding would give you expected value of $990. Is this the kind of example you really meant with your whole "I don't take coinflips!" attitude?

[RevStu]

Originally Posted by Dice Man

What is with this tangent in your argument anyway? Are you now telling us that you don't believe probability theory is accurate enough at predicting results in the short term?

It's perfectly accurate at its intended parameters, ie infinity. That's not a tangent, that's the whole fricking point. Poker players like to engage in MASSIVE self-delusion about probability. I, on the other hand, actually know something about it...

[DannyC]

Originally Posted by RevStu

It's perfectly accurate at its intended parameters, ie infinity. That's not a tangent, that's the whole fricking point. Poker players like to engage in MASSIVE self-delusion about probability. I, on the other hand, actually know something about it...

I think someone's hit the nail on the head... is probably a better response...

[Gus Mango Fish]

Originally Posted by Raiser

lol! You been drinking?

lol, no. I am following the same logic that it's acceptable to fold Aces on the bubble of a cash tourney

[Raiser]

Originally Posted by Gus Mango Fish

lol, no. I am following the same logic that it's acceptable to fold Aces on the bubble of a cash tourney

Yeah i gathered. Very tounge in cheek. I applied the same logic when i said folding AA preflop is +ev.

Is it possible to put this thread in the private forum? I am not sure if i can be associated with this site if joe bloggs can read this thread... how embarrassing!!! Iam going to change my avator... cant have my face on there any longer!

[Gus Mango Fish]

Would be interesting to see what some pro players (e.g. Pete, Dan, elBlondie, Lucy Rokach etc..) would say about this thread.

I am 100% sure that folding Aces on the bubble of a cash tournament is pretty massively -EV. There has to be some very specific circumstances for the fold to be correct, as Dice points out in his posts.

I guess the question is really "when can you fold Aces on the bubble in a cash tournament ?". The answer being "hardly ever, but there are a couple of times - e.g. you are extremely short stacked. Maybe 25 chips with the blinds 16,000 / 32,000; and when the payout structure is extremely flat - e.g. 500th>400th = $1000 399th>300th=$1500 etc."

Anyway, would be interesting to see what view the Pro's have.

[Raiser]

dice picked up on this but i remember saying this ages ago... I WOULD fold AA preflop on the bubble to a massive event that i satellited in for...i.e. WSOP main event, sat'd in for £50 and on the bubble and a few people raise before me... the reason being i would be playing so far out of my depth in terms of buyin a cash of $20k would be awesome!

[Gus Mango Fish]

Originally Posted by Raiser

dice picked up on this but i remember saying this ages ago... I WOULD fold AA preflop on the bubble to a massive event that i satellited in for...i.e. WSOP main event, sat'd in for £50 and on the bubble and a few people raise before me... the reason being i would be playing so far out of my depth in terms of buyin a cash of $20k would be awesome!

Actually, I think it was me (not Dice) that said that here: Can You Fold Aces Preflop?

Dice may have said it too though - can't be arsed to re-read the whole thread lol

[Storm_Claws]

I think you have to call with the ACEs. It looks to good not too. I think it is a quick call too.

[Prowler]

i bet you cant find a single pro who would fold aces in that position unless you bribe them to say it or hold a gun to their head