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Thread: Is this a good gamble ?

  1. #1
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    Thumbs up Is this a good gamble?

    I have found a competition that seems to have pretty good odds of winning a car. Basically they are selling 2,900 tickets for a spot the ball competition which seems good when compared to things like the Lottery.

    There are a few places doing competitions like this do you think they are a good bet ?

    Cheers.
    Last edited by Rosso; 28th November 2004 at 11:30 AM.

  2. #2
    Rank: Player FreeZey's Avatar
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    Risk vs Reward

    The lottery is long odds and high return. Chance to win jackpot 1 in 44,000,000

    This is closer to the other end of the scale. Chance to win car 1 in 2,900.

    NB: “Each entry has a 1 in 362 chance of winning a prize !” This isn’t referring to the car and those prizes are probably worth less than the £15 cost of the ticket.

    Just because the odds are shorter doesn’t make it a good bet. It still has negative expectation, i.e. if you kept playing until you finally won the statistical probability is that you would have lost more money than the car is worth.
    To be exact £43,500 to win a £26,000 car = profit -£17,500

    If you’re looking for a game of random chance, that requires no skill and the odds are as short as possible (although still against you) go to a casino and bet on black or red (it’s approx 49% to win.).

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    Quote Originally Posted by FreeZey
    Risk vs Reward

    The lottery is long odds and high return. Chance to win jackpot 1 in 44,000,000
    The odds of winning the lottery are closer to 1 in 14 million as far as I know.. This post explains why: http://www.gambling.co.uk/forums/general-lotto-lottery-forum/187-odds-winning-national-lottery-lotto-draw.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by LennyLotto
    The odds of winning the lottery are closer to 1 in 14 million
    Sorry you’re absolutely right, I could remember that it had a 4 in it but that’s about it

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    Thumbs down

    I always like to remember the fact that you are statistically more likely to be struck by lightning than win the National Lotto jackpot. Remember that next time you are all walking up during a thunderstorm

  6. #6
    jjh
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    The odds of winning the lottery are more like 6 to the power of 49, which is

    1300000000000000000000000000000000000000/1- that is how many possible combinations there are in fact- although it is unlikely 1,2,3,4,5,6 will ever be drawn- but they are the true odds.

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    Insert Rank Name Here jglenny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjh
    although it is unlikely 1,2,3,4,5,6 will ever be drawn

    Just as likely as any other combination
    Any time you aggressively play seven deuce off suit, the universe will bend the laws of short term probability in order to re-balance the long term probability abuses by those trashy players who only play premium hands

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    Rank: Untouchable a1056688's Avatar
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    Incorrect.

    The odds of winning the lottery are 13,983,815 to 1.
    BSc, MOS, CCA(MPS 4.0), ITIL, ILM, MBCS

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    Insert Rank Name Here jglenny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by a1056688
    Incorrect.

    The odds of winning the lottery are 13,983,815 to 1.
    So when it's a rollover and the prize is over 14 Million could you in theory buy every combination and win it Plus the prizes for 3,4,5 numbers.

    As long as your the only winner
    Any time you aggressively play seven deuce off suit, the universe will bend the laws of short term probability in order to re-balance the long term probability abuses by those trashy players who only play premium hands

  10. #10
    Rank: Untouchable a1056688's Avatar
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    Yep you certainly could.

    I have pondered on this theory in the past.

    The problem is you would have to be the only winner (unlikely if it's a £14 million roll over) + you have the slight problem of borrowing the initial £14 million and filling out 14 million slips.

    Judging by the speed of the staff in my local supermarket it would take them approximatley 972 days to put them all on. Thats based on working 24 hours and having 10 lines on each ticket.

    BSc, MOS, CCA(MPS 4.0), ITIL, ILM, MBCS

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