Is this a good gamble ?

Rosso · 7th November 2004, 05:35 PM

I have found a competition that seems to have pretty good odds of winning a car. Basically they are selling 2,900 tickets for a spot the ball competition which seems good when compared to things like the Lottery.

There are a few places doing competitions like this do you think they are a good bet

?

Cheers.

FreeZey · 8th November 2004, 09:42 AM

Risk vs Reward

The lottery is long odds and high return. Chance to win jackpot 1 in 44,000,000

This is closer to the other end of the scale. Chance to win car 1 in 2,900.

NB: “Each entry has a 1 in 362 chance of winning a prize !” This isn’t referring to the car and those prizes are probably worth less than the £15 cost of the ticket.

Just because the odds are shorter doesn’t make it a good bet. It still has negative expectation, i.e. if you kept playing until you finally won the statistical probability is that you would have lost more money than the car is worth.
To be exact £43,500 to win a £26,000 car = profit -£17,500

If you’re looking for a game of random chance, that requires no skill and the odds are as short as possible (although still against you) go to a casino and bet on black or red (it’s approx 49% to win.).

LennyLotto · 8th November 2004, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreeZey

Risk vs Reward

The lottery is long odds and high return. Chance to win jackpot 1 in 44,000,000

The odds of winning the lottery are closer to 1 in 14 million as far as I know.. This post explains why: Odds of Winning the National Lottery Lotto Draw

FreeZey · 8th November 2004, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LennyLotto

The odds of winning the lottery are closer to 1 in 14 million

Sorry you’re absolutely right, I could remember that it had a 4 in it but that’s about it

Communication20 · 26th April 2005, 04:48 PM

I always like to remember the fact that you are statistically more likely to be struck by lightning than win the National Lotto jackpot. Remember that next time you are all walking up during a thunderstorm

jjh · 28th April 2005, 01:17 PM

The odds of winning the lottery are more like 6 to the power of 49, which is

1300000000000000000000000000000000000000/1- that is how many possible combinations there are in fact- although it is unlikely 1,2,3,4,5,6 will ever be drawn- but they are the true odds.

jglenny · 3rd May 2005, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjh

although it is unlikely 1,2,3,4,5,6 will ever be drawn

Just as likely as any other combination

a1056688 · 3rd May 2005, 03:59 PM

Incorrect.

The odds of winning the lottery are 13,983,815 to 1.

jglenny · 3rd May 2005, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by a1056688

Incorrect.

The odds of winning the lottery are 13,983,815 to 1.

So when it's a rollover and the prize is over 14 Million could you in theory buy every combination and win it

Plus the prizes for 3,4,5 numbers.

As long as your the only winner

a1056688 · 3rd May 2005, 05:14 PM

Yep you certainly could.

I have pondered on this theory in the past.

The problem is you would have to be the only winner (unlikely if it's a £14 million roll over) + you have the slight problem of borrowing the initial £14 million and filling out 14 million slips.

Judging by the speed of the staff in my local supermarket it would take them approximatley 972 days to put them all on. Thats based on working 24 hours and having 10 lines on each ticket.

7th November 2004, 05:35 PM	#1 (permalink)
Rosso Rank: Beginner Last Online: 28th November 2004 11:33 AM Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1	Is this a good gamble? I have found a competition that seems to have pretty good odds of winning a car. Basically they are selling 2,900 tickets for a spot the ball competition which seems good when compared to things like the Lottery. There are a few places doing competitions like this do you think they are a good bet ? Cheers. __________________ Last edited by Rosso : 28th November 2004 at 11:30 AM.
vChips: 444

8th November 2004, 09:42 AM	#2 (permalink)
FreeZey Rank: Player Last Online: 14th April 2008 06:39 PM Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 118	Risk vs Reward The lottery is long odds and high return. Chance to win jackpot 1 in 44,000,000 This is closer to the other end of the scale. Chance to win car 1 in 2,900. NB: “Each entry has a 1 in 362 chance of winning a prize !” This isn’t referring to the car and those prizes are probably worth less than the £15 cost of the ticket. Just because the odds are shorter doesn’t make it a good bet. It still has negative expectation, i.e. if you kept playing until you finally won the statistical probability is that you would have lost more money than the car is worth. To be exact £43,500 to win a £26,000 car = profit -£17,500 If you’re looking for a game of random chance, that requires no skill and the odds are as short as possible (although still against you) go to a casino and bet on black or red (it’s approx 49% to win.). __________________ FREEZEY
vChips: 2,233

26th April 2005, 04:48 PM	#5 (permalink)
Communication20 Rank: Beginner Last Online: 28th April 2005 02:01 PM Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Here, there and everywhere Posts: 9	I always like to remember the fact that you are statistically more likely to be struck by lightning than win the National Lotto jackpot. Remember that next time you are all walking up during a thunderstorm __________________
vChips: 359

28th April 2005, 01:17 PM	#6 (permalink)
jjh Rank: Untouchable Last Online: 18th September 2008 09:20 PM Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Wirral UK Posts: 1,482	The odds of winning the lottery are more like 6 to the power of 49, which is 1300000000000000000000000000000000000000/1- that is how many possible combinations there are in fact- although it is unlikely 1,2,3,4,5,6 will ever be drawn- but they are the true odds. __________________
vChips: 5,442

3rd May 2005, 03:59 PM	#8 (permalink)
a1056688 Rank: Untouchable Last Online: 24th August 2008 11:01 AM Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Teesside Posts: 1,156	Incorrect. The odds of winning the lottery are 13,983,815 to 1. __________________ BSc, MOS, CCA(MPS 4.0), ITIL, ILM, MBCS
vChips: 5,881

3rd May 2005, 05:14 PM	#10 (permalink)
a1056688 Rank: Untouchable Last Online: 24th August 2008 11:01 AM Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Teesside Posts: 1,156	Yep you certainly could. I have pondered on this theory in the past. The problem is you would have to be the only winner (unlikely if it's a £14 million roll over) + you have the slight problem of borrowing the initial £14 million and filling out 14 million slips. Judging by the speed of the staff in my local supermarket it would take them approximatley 972 days to put them all on. Thats based on working 24 hours and having 10 lines on each ticket. __________________ BSc, MOS, CCA(MPS 4.0), ITIL, ILM, MBCS
vChips: 5,881

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