Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

NHL 2010.02.04 first 4 picks:

Dallas Stars @ Columbus Blue Jackets: Over 5.5 -105 (1.95) Bookmaker, Goalwin

Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +200 (3.00) Bookmaker, Bet Jamaica

New York Islanders @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning PL -1.5 +200 (3.00) Bookmaker, Bet Jamaica

Vancouver Canucks @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators ML +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.



Vancouver Canucks @ Ottawa Senators

One of the things that we have to keep in mind in handicapping is that we have always to seek the odds value. One of the most important things to determinate that value is how the team is playing in the last games, if their confidence is up, and if they are going in a hot streak or have a letdown spot. Today, we have a team that is incredible hot and playing an awesome game that is dog at is own house.

Canucks are making a good season, 34-19 is a remarkable record, however their road record isn't even positive, with a 11-12. If they seems to have the advantage on the matchups against Senators, leading 7-1 in the last 8 games, we can't forget that Canucks this year are not so strong on road, allowing almost 3 goals per game and scoring around 2.8 goals per game only. If the record isn't positive, the stats aren't much better.

Senators is a team that were making a good season, but the managed the previous games with some injuries. It's true that they had few games with more than 1 important player out, but... When the team started to play all together, without injuries, they managed a 10-0 streak, that is the point they are right now. This is more than remarkable, is simple the best spot that a bettor can take. This streak had hard spots, like going to Pittsburgh, host Chicago, and so on, but they only missed to win in regular time when they hosted Montreal. Their defense is playing pretty well, allowing only 1.20 goals per game, and offense scoring 3.20 goals per game. They are also a good home team, with a 20-8 record.

Despite a good season from Vancouver, that are playing a good game, they lost their last game. Half of the time, Canucks lost the next game after a loss, showing that they are not the kind of team that deal well with a loss. Senators are going thought a really hot streak, are strong at home, and will definitely have the edge today as they are with confidence.

Pick: Ottawa Senators ML +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

NHL 2010.02.04 final 3 picks:

San Jose Sharks @ St. Louis Blues: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +215 (3.15) The Greek

San Jose Sharks @ St. Louis Blues: Over 5.5 +115 (2.15) Bookmaker

Edmonton Oilers @ Minnesota Wild: Edmonton Oilers 3Way (1X2) +235 (3.35) Bookmaker, +350 (4.50) StanJames

*One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

NHL 2010.02.05 first pick:

Atlanta Thrashers @ Washington Capitals

Thrashers are in the mouths of the world. They have traded their biggest franchise name in the last 8 years and their captain for one first round pick and another 3 players without any kind of impact.

Thrashers are with a even record of 24-23. Their defense is among the worst of the league, but their offense compensate it. However, their defense were all around Kovalchuk, he were the key player and managed himself many wins. Now, the team have lack of talent, and will probably struggles a lot, as they will not be able to keep a good offense to compensate a bad defense.

Capitals are sweeping every one they faces. With a streak of 12 wins, the team isn't showing any sign of slowing down. They are scoring more than 4 goals per game lately, and allowing only 2 goals per game. Today, their defense man will return to game, Mike Green.

Capitals are playing to well and will be easy to them face a soft defense, specially at home. Capitals defense will have a easy night also, as Thrashers are orphan from their best offensive player. Last month, Capitals went to Atlanta win 8-1, showing how easy is to them to face this team.

Pick: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

---

NHL 2010.02.04 results:

Dallas Stars @ Columbus Blue Jackets: Over 5.5 -105 (1.95) Bookmaker (2-1: LOSS)
Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +200 (3.00) Bookmaker (5-6: LOSS)
New York Islanders @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning PL -1.5 +200 (3.00) Bookmaker (5-2: WIN)
Vancouver Canucks @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators ML +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (3-1: WIN)

San Jose Sharks @ St. Louis Blues: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +215 (3.15) The Greek (2-4: WIN)
San Jose Sharks @ St. Louis Blues: Over 5.5 +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (2-4: WIN)
Edmonton Oilers @ Minnesota Wild: Edmonton Oilers 3Way (1X2) +235 (3.35) Bookmaker (4-2: LOSS)

NHL 2010.02.04 finished 4-3 and +3.3 units lost/7 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 141-168-4, +15.8 units won (309 units risked)

NHL since 2009.11.23: 109-106-4, +34.3 units won (215 units risked)

[TommyGold]

NHL 2010.02.06 final 4 picks:

Vancouver Canucks @ Boston Bruins: Boston Bruins ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

Detroit Red Wings @ Los Angeles Kings: Los Angeles Kings PL -1.5 +230 (3.30) Bookmaker

Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +220 (3.20) The Greek

Chicago Blackhawks @ St. Louis Blues: Chicago Blackhawks PL -1.5 +220 (3.20) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.




NHL 2010.02.05 results:

Atlanta Thrashers @ Washington Capitals: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (5-2: WIN)

NHL 2010.02.05 finished 1-0 and +0.95 units won/1 unit risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 142-168-4, +16.75 units won (310 units risked)

NHL since 2009.11.23: 110-106-4, +35.25 units won (216 units risked)

[TommyGold]

NHL 2010.02.07 first pick:

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +160 (2.60) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.



NHL 2010.02.06 results:

Vancouver Canucks @ Boston Bruins: Boston Bruins ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker (2-3 SO: LOSS)
Detroit Red Wings @ Los Angeles Kings: Los Angeles Kings PL -1.5 +230 (3.30) Bookmaker (4-3: LOSS)
Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +220 (3.20) The Greek (5-0: LOSS)
Chicago Blackhawks @ St. Louis Blues: Chicago Blackhawks PL -1.5 +220 (3.20) Bookmaker (1-2: LOSS)

NHL 2010.02.06 finished 0-4 and -4 units lost/4 unit risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 142-172-4, +12.75 units won (314 units risked)

NHL since 2009.11.23: 110-110-4, +31.25 units won (220 units risked)

[TommyGold]

No NHL for today, 2010.02.08.



NHL 2010.02.07 results:

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +160 (2.60) Bookmaker (5-4 OT: LOSS)

NHL 2010.02.07 finished 0-1 and -1 unit lost/1 unit risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 142-173-4, +11.75 units won (315 units risked)

NHL since 2009.11.23: 110-111-4, +30.25 units won (221 units risked)

[TommyGold]

NHL 2010.02.09 final 2 picks:


Vancouver Canucks @ Tampa Bay Lightning

There is no doubt that the Canucks are a better team. They are in a great position to secure a position to playoffs, leading by 2 wins over Colorado, but they can´t rest over that wins. They have to fight every game, and have to improve their road record. For a team that want´s a playoff spot, it´s important to have a positive record on road, something that Canucks haven´t achieved yet. Their main problem on the road is their defense, and they have to try another approach to win more road games.

Tampa is almost out of the race to playoffs. It´s hard to compete against Capitals, but even a good second place is something that seems unlikely. The team had some bad moments during the season and one huge problem, as they are really bad on the road. But its well known that this is a home-based team that loves big games. This team have great offensive players, with lot´s of talent, that can´t produce a good show and lot´s of goals. These players enjoy to play at home, where they can show of good they are.

Today it will be a hard matchup for Canucks, if Tampa wake up in a "yes day", they will have big problems. They only way to turn around that problem, is to be better on offensive, and for the third best offensive team, that´s the right way to approach things. Tampa are not known by their defense, and that´s why I expect a open game with lots of goals.

Pick: Over 5.5 +115 (2.15) Bookmaker



Calgary Flames @ Ottawa Senators

A matchup between Canadian teams is always a special game for both teams. For today matchup, Senators have the edge on the revenge side, as they are 0-6 in the last 6 matches between these teams. That´s nothing odd, as before those games, Senators won several in a row. So we have some series for both teams, and it´s more probable to stop this last series than keep it on. Today Senators have that edge, but that´s not all. They are playing much better, and are 10-1 in last 11 games. They wish to kill todays opponent for some reasons. First, they are angry because they lost last game at Toronto, stopping their 10 games streak. Second, they wish to stop the 6 straight losses against Flames.

Flames started well the season, but since the new year they are passing a bad moment, with a 4-13 record. Their biggest problem lately is face teams that are playing well and with a strong offensive game. Today they will face a team that is playing that kid of game, and despite a good defense lately from Flames, Senators are strong at home, scoring more than 3 goals per game.

Pick: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +220 (3.20) The Greek

*One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

Dropped 2 units yesterday.



NHL 2010.02.10 final 2 picks:


Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils

2 days ago, these teams met in Philadelphia. The result was a 3-2 favoring Flyers. Nevertheless, we can get some conclusions. Flyers won but needed to score 3 goals in a row, as they were losing by 2. This is something that will be hard to do today, as they will not be playing at home. As a derby, its unlikely to have another twist in the game, specially when they are playing two straight matchups. So, it's unlikely that Flyers get another win last one, even thinking that they deserved it for what they did in the second half of the game. However, we can't forget that Devils got almost the double PP than Flyers, but weren't able to take that edge as something effective. For a team with so good offensive players, that's something that they can't tolerate for several games in a row.

These teams plays in the same division and have a big rivalry between them. But Devils have the edge this season, they are in the first place, and Flyers only in third, behind Penguins. Devils can't sleep, as Penguins (current champions) are only 2 wins away, and after they acquired Kovalchuk, the expectations for this team are higher than never. Flyers probably throw all the season away after they passed a bad month that cost them many wins. They are returning to the shape that we saw earlier in the season, however, they still need to improve their road games.

There will be 2 great teams playing tonight, particularly on offensive. But this will be a tense game, between two rivals, and that's why the totals are not a good play today, as they can't have to pressure and score few goals, or released themselves and score lot's of goals. But even so, Devils are in a better position to secure a win today, as they have more talented players on offense, and a better defensive at home.

Pick: New Jersey Devils 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker



Atlanta Thrashers @ Colorado Avalanche

Thrashers lost their biggest franchise name and unquestionable their best player in this decade. After that, the team had deal well, with a obvious loss at Washington, but won the last game at home against a Florida team. The fact is that Atlanta were in a higher level when they had Kovalchuk, but are now playing in the same level of Florida. They are able to make good streaks if they got the momentum, however we can't expect to much on them. At this point, it's a risk to bet on Atlanta if they are not coming from at least 2 straight wins. Of course if they play against a team that only have 10 players, and 8 of them only have one leg...

Thrashers also lost the right to be called a good road team, as they seemed earlier in the season, as they are with a bad streak of 2-12 in last 14 road games. In the inverse way, Avs are no longer a bad home team, with a 7-2 in last 8 and a 18-8 record at home. Avs key has been a great defense, as they are allowing few goals, and their offensive keeps as strong as ever. Atlanta got a weak defense, and it's expected that their offense decreased.

Colorado have today the chance to recover the first place in their division, where they are fighting against Canucks. The target is to end the regular season in the first place, as the second place can't guarantee a playoff spot. Their motivation will be high.

Pick: Colorado Avalanche PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) Bookmaker


*One unit each always

[TommyGold]

Including last Saturday, 2010.02.06, I've dropped 9 units in a row...


NHL 2010.02.09 results:

Vancouver Canucks @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Over 5.5 +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (3-1: LOSS)
Calgary Flames @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +220 (3.20) The Greek (3-2: LOSS)

NHL 2010.02.09 finished 0-2 and -2 units lost/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 142-175-4, +9.75 units won (317 units risked)

NHL since 2009.11.23: 110-113-4, +28.25 units won (223 units risked)



NHL 2010.02.10 results:

Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils: New Jersey Devils 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (2-3 OT: LOSS)
Atlanta Thrashers @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) Bookmaker (4-3 OT: LOSS)

NHL 2010.02.10 finished 0-2 and -2 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 142-177-4, +7.75 units won (319 units risked)

NHL since 2009.11.23: 110-115-4, +26.25 units won (225 units risked)

[TommyGold]

NHL 2010.02.11 final 2 picks:


Washington Capitals @ Ottawa Senators

Today we will have a matchup between two hot teams. Both teams are going well lately, and I will not write about any stats, as there is no edge on that.

Capitals are with a 14-1 record in the last 15 games. At this point, there is no doubt that they are the strongest candidate to Stanley Cup. However, it's earlier to be sure because of the last year. But Capitals, since they had their players back from injuries list, are sweeping everything that they face. They can beat the best home team in their own arena, because their offense is just producing lot's of goals. They are losing 4-1 in the middle of the game? No problem for them, they just activate their offensive mode, and they won the game, like they did against Pittsburgh. They went to NY to a matchup against Rangers. Rangers had a great night, scoring 5 goals. But... that isn't enough, Capitals were able to win in in regular time in the last period. This show how strong the team is, and today they will be this kind of team. And there's why: In the last match, Capitals lost in Montreal. Now, someone will have to deal with an angry team. And if Capitals are really a contenders, they have to show that they also can be mental winners.

Ottawa is going a great period, curiously since they had their players back from injuries list. They can score against anyone and keep their nets with few hits. However, this moment seems to be passing, as they went to Toronto losing 5-0, and then faced Flames at home winning only 3-2, with a game that wasn't so easy. The team have some talents that are not in their best years concerning their physical indices. So, their "momentum" is going away, and the team will have today to host a great team, that's is unlikely that they can hold if they are going to a letdown, something that is likely.

Pick: Washington Capitals 3Way (1X2) +125 (2.25) Bookmaker



Buffalo Sabres @ Carolina Hurricanes

Despite the difference between two teams in standings, we can't despise the recent form. If the Hurricanes took lot's of games to find their best game, Buffalo seems a little bit tired and passing a letdown moment. This is enough to give value to Hurricanes ML, that is over +100. Hurricanes are the kind of team that fight and are hard to beat, specially at home. They never give up, and against a team passing a letdown phase, we have an edge.

Sabres are 2-9 in last 11 games. On road, they are 2-7 in last 9 game and showing a horrible defense. They were playing a great game, but suddenly the good results stop. The team is struggling a lot, they are allowing almost 4 goals per game, and it's been hard for them to score.

Carolina are in a different way. After one of the worst starts of the season, the team is 8-2 in last 10 games. At home, they are 6-2 in last 8 games, and with a overall 14-12 record. A positive record that has been hard to built, but the last games they were able to.

So, despite the the 32 win this seasons that Sabres have, there is value in taking Carolina side today. Carolina only have 22 wins this season, but they are in a hardworking mode and at home they are always strong. When they faces team that approach the game in the wrong way, they usually win, it's always a mistake to underestimate them.

Pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML +105 (2.05) The Greek


*One unit each always. L9: 0-9