Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

3 picks for today, 2010.10.19:

San Jose Sharks @ New York Rangers: New York Rangers 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) Bookmaker

Los Angeles Kings @ Dallas Stars: Dallas Stars PL -1.5 +212 (3.12) 5Dimes, DAL PL -1.5 +210 (3.10) The Greek

Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers: Edmonton Oilers 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) Bookmaker


Writeups will follow in the next hour.

[TommyGold]

San Jose Sharks @ New York Rangers

New York Rangers will host this Monday after an easy win in Toronto the San Jose Sharks. I understand that this game seems too tight. Being a soft dog, there is some temptation to back San Jose. However, I can find a lot of value on Rangers 3WAY. These odds give us a plus signal for a team that has won this year all games at home. And until now, the Rangers didn't need to play an overtime in order to win a game this season. And if i believe in the Rangers to win, 3Way has the value we need to back them.

Why?

New York Rangers started this season in Pittsburgh, losing by one goal only against the actual champions. Since then, they won all the 7 games they played. They are hot in their offensive game and strong in defense. They just play as a team, improving from the last year, and finally make us believe that they can get a season as their supporters just want to. Gaborik was a amazing addiction, after struggling with an injury last season on Minnesota Wild.

They just score about 4.00 goals per game, as much as Atlanta, the most powerful scoring teams this season. Even in Defense, they just allow 1.88 goals per game, the second best record on NHL. This show us how good they are, but more impressive, is the fact that they are balanced! Top 3 on offense and defense.

San Jose Sharks are 4-3-1 this season, 2-3 away. Let's face one fact: only the win at Anaheim Ducks give them some credit. They are showing a defensive game away, that no one could guess when the league began. Even their offensive with some good added players struggles some days, showing that they have some issues, because they have talent for more. With those first lines, they can't be as they are, in the middle of the scoring ranks, with 3.12 goals per game. Their defense is in the middle as well, allowing 2.75 goals per game.

In short, we see two teams in different situations. The Sharks with a wonderful squad, theoretically stronger than last year, but showing a hockey below the expectations. The Rangers, a team that had their problems last year, shows now a strong game, and proves that they can rehab some players they acquired. The Rangers have the "momentum" with them. They are strong, they have confidence, and they believe that they can win this game just by presenting their current hockey. They are 8-0 ATS this season, they usually win when they host Sharks, and the home team is 3-0 after 2 days rest, when the Sharks are 0-2 in the same days rest period.

About the PP situations, they are a little bit even, some percentage as offensive, however the Sharks have some troubles defending PP.

With the momentum, home advantage, the confidence and power on the Rangers side, I will back their side.


Pick: New York Rangers 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Los Angeles Kings @ Dallas Stars

Los Angeles Kings will finally end their road trip. After 5 games on the road they will return to home after this game. There is not much to say. Kings gives an early hope for LA fans, but they start to fade after the 4-1 in 5 first games. They won at Saint Louis Blues and New York Islanders, but i think that it is wrong to give to much credit to the Kings, after all those teams are easy prey. The truth is they are now 0-3 in the last 3 games and they just want to return home. They aren't defending well and their great offensive at the beginning of the season is falling off.

Dallas Stars just lost one game in regular time, 0-3 in their last game at home, against the Boston Bruins. They are 3-1-0-3, 3 losses after SO, but are coming from a great win at Chicago by 4-3. I think that Dallas is a better team and the difference between both rosters is pretty visible.

The LA Kings have 2/3 of the team with flu symptoms, that's for sure not the best condition to play. They are tired, almost 10 days out on the road. On their last game, they had 0 for 5 with the man advantage, that show us how mistrust they are. With a good first line, who can't see Dallas Starts win by 2 or more goals?

Pick: Dallas Stars PL -1.5 +212 (3.12) 5Dimes, DAL PL -1.5 +210 (3.10) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers

Vancouver Canucks will face today a Northwest Division rival, the Edmonton Oilers. So, we shouldn't analyse any trends because in this game anything can happen, but if we want to find here a spot to pick, it should be only about how teams are. The Canucks, 0-3 when playing away. The Oilers, have lost 2 games at home in 5. Both of them hosted the rivals Calgary Flames.

Edmonton is playing well as they get stronger game after game. They lost 2 of their 3 first season games, both of them at home against the rivals Flames. Since then, they only lost at Chicago against the Blackhawks. That 3 losses, were by the minimum margin. They are playing well, scoring 3.86 goals per game, and keeping a good defense.

Vancouver is getting stronger at offense after game after game, but they are not reliable at defense. As visitors, they lost all their games for 2 or more goals. The last game they went out, it was against a rival too, the Flames, and end up losing 3-5.

So, we have here a game between two different teams. The Canucks only see forward, but Oilers can see offense as well as defense. For Oilers, we will have Hemsky returning, and Souray is questionable yet. For Canucks, D. Sedin, and Salo will join Demitra in the injured/disabled list.

Between a team strong on both sides of the field, with the best players at the game and the need to make their first derby win, this should be a relatively easy game. Vancouver don't know yet how to win on the road and still has to improve the defense. Sedin and Salo are important missing players. I even think Khabibulin is a better goaltender and in a better shape than Luongo.

If this game was not so important for both teams (Canucks need to win outside, Oilers need to win against a rival at home), and a derby, then the over would be a great play as well. But this will be a hot game, to enjoy and push for Oilers. They are confident, and the Canucks should feel the absences of D. Sedin and Salo.

Pick: Edmonton Oilers 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Last Saturday's (2009.10.17) results:

Atlanta Thrashers @ Buffalo Sabres: Atlanta Thrashers ML +150 (2,50) Bookmaker (2-4: WIN)
San Jose Sharks @ New York Islanders: Over 5.5 -115 (1,87) 5Dimes (1-4: LOSS)
Nashville Predators @ Washington Capitals: Washington Capitals PL -1,5 +130 (2,30) Bookmaker (3-2: LOSS)
Colorado Avalanche @ Detroit Red Wings: Colorado Avalanche ML +170 (2,70) The Greek (3-4: WIN)
New York Rangers @ Toronto Maple Leafs: Toronto Maple Leafs ML +130 (2,30) Bookmaker (1-4: LOSS)
Dallas Stars @ Chicago Blackhawks: Over 5.5 -125 (1,80) 5Dimes (3-4: WIN)
Boston Bruins @ Phoenix Coyotes: Boston Bruins 3Way (1X2) +135 (2,35) Bookmaker (4-1: LOSS)
St. Louis Blues @ Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim Ducks 3Way (1X2) +115 (2,15) Bookmaker (0-5: LOSS)

2009.10.17 finished with a 3-5 and -1 unit lost/8 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 9-12 (+0,62 units won/21 units risked)

[TommyGold]

St. Louis Blues @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Let‘s go to the West Coast... Now let‘s go to the East Coast... And this is the recent life of the St. Louis Blues team this week. It can be hard especially when the second team is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Even when the Blues are good on the road, losing only one game on OT in 3 games. But this year, the Penguins improved their defense. With that good defense, they are showing that they only need a few shoots to score, winning easily the majority of the games, sitting on a 7-1 record.

I know that St. Louis comes from a great win over the Anaheim Ducks, however they had made a big travel prior to this game. The Penguins had lost one game at home, against the Phoenix Coyotes, their only loss at the moment, and they can‘t compromise another game at home so soon. I see that the edge on this game is on the Penguins. Their roster... well, advantage number one. They are better defenders than the Blues, advantage number two. They can score as much as the Blues, but only need half of the shoots, advantage number three.

The Puck Line is a good bet, the accuracy of the Penguins centers, is one of the best on the NHL. If they are winning only by one goal difference at the end, Pittsburgh is a reliable team to score another goal on an empty net situation. So, even if they only scored one more goal than the Blues during 58 minutes, we can expect another goal at the last minutes to make our PL a winner.



Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +180 (2.80) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Calgary Flames

A week after, Columbus Blue Jackets will face Calgary Flames again. In the first match up of the season Columbus won 2-1 at home. Now, it's their turn to make the trip. Fortunately they had 3 days off, so they could have some rest and make a quiet travel. It's important to them to continue this good start of the season, with only 1 loss in 6 games, against the Sharks in San Jose.

The Flames had 4 days rest, which can be too much time to be out in a season start and that can be treacherous. They had a good beginning with 4 wins in a row, but then they went 1-3. Something appears to be wrong: in 8 games, they won 5, all against canadian opponents. They didn't won one game yet at USA floor.

We will have a match up between two teams, where the advantage in the offensive game or the defensive game is with Columbus, as they can defend much better than Calgary. Moreover, Columbus are playing a intelligent hockey, just taking 6 goals at Sharks, but Shark are Stanley Cup contenders and they have a great first line. In the rest of the games, they usually had allowed only one goal per game.

A week ago Calgary scored first, but they could hold it, and lost 2-1, a result that expressed the truth in the field. Actually, Calgary had some problems this year to hold the lead in the games when they are winning. Who can't remember that game in Chicago (5-1 in the first period, 5-5 in the end of regulation time, loss in OT)? So, i will take here the Blue Jackets, they are smarter in the field, they know this Calgary team and they have the potential to show to this mind weak team, how to win a game.


Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +165 (2,65) Bookmaker, CLB 3Way (1X2) +220 (3,20) bwin

[TommyGold]

2009.10.19 results:

San Jose Sharks @ New York Rangers: New York Rangers 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) Bookmaker (3-7: LOSS)
Los Angeles Kings @ Dallas Stars: Dallas Stars PL -1.5 +212 (3.12) 5Dimes, DAL PL -1.5 +210 (3.10) The Greek (1-4: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers: Edmonton Oilers 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) Bookmaker (2-1 WIN)

2009.10.19 finished with a 1-2 and -0,65 units lost/3 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 10-14 (-0,03 units won/24 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Nashville Predators @ Boston Bruins

Predators and Bruins are two teams that we expected more than they had show so far. Nashville has came from a hard game and lost in SO against the Capitals in Washington. Can this game mark the turn?

The Bruins, with Lucic and Savard out, comes from a loss in Phoenix against the Coyotes. "Let's explore that spot! Bruins with 2 men out, Predators starting to improve!". I think that this can be so wrong, but so wrong, that i will bet against this thought. The Bruins are the better team. They are returning home, and they don't have a choice... They have to start to please their supporters. If the team can't play well today, against one team that has been lousy in this start of the season, Bruins will lose to much credit in their fans eyes.

The experience and depth in Bruins roster can make some difference today. I don't have time today to explain in detail my opinion, I'm with a bloody headache now that I've to take some time off right now, however, I expect a scenario similar to Dallas vs Nashville game, where Nashville lost 6-0.

Pick: Boston Bruins PL -1.5 +150 (2.50) 5Dimes, BOS PL -1.5 +145 (2.45) The Greek


I also like Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago Blackhawks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1,95) Bookmaker & Over 5.5 -120 (1.83) 5 Dimes, Centrebet, Pinnacle, but I need to take a rest now, so please excuse me for not delivering a justification right now.

[TommyGold]

2009.10.19 results:

St. Louis Blues @ Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +180 (2.80) Bookmaker, 5Dimes +175 (2,75) (5-1: WIN)
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Calgary Flames: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +165 (2,65) Bookmaker, CLB 3Way (1X2) +220 (3,20) bwin (6-3: LOSS)

2009.10.20 finished with a 1-1 and +0,8 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 11-15 (+0,77 units won/26 units risked)