Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Is no news that for me QB Tom Brady will be one day in the Pro Football Hall of Fame as one of the best Quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. He his improving is game week after week and therefore, I expect him to play better than in his last game against the Ravens. New England (3-1) has one of the best offenses in the league, playing much better than expect in this season start and with the return of WR Wes Welker, Brady will have again more quality options to pass the ball. If in the early season, the biggest issue with these Patriots was their defense and how they would behave against their opponents' offenses, now we can say that is thanks to their D that the Pats have already 3 wins under their belt. It is a young defensive unit, and they are improving their game week after week.

Denver (4-0) hasn't lost a game yet on this season and the reason for that is their great defense. The Broncos D is playing very well, causing a lot of pressure on the opponents' quarterbacks and they are getting a lot of sacks too, 15 already. Their QB Kyle Orton has been doing a nice season so far, but frankly I think he still has a long road ahead to become a good quarterback. Orton has 5 TD and 0 INTS, but he can be very thankful to his great quality WRs, which are doing excellent catches despite the bad throws delivered by Orton, with several low balls like I saw in his last game against the Dallas Cowboys. If it weren't his WRs getting all those balls with outstanding catches and we would see incomplete after incomplete passes.

New England is playing much better now, specially on the Offense and with the return of Wes Welker, the Patriots will have a broad range of tools to keep the Broncos D busy, and when Brady has that kind of options at his disposal, he plays much better, and this is for me the main factor for a fourth winner of the Pats this season, the first for the small favorite on the road, delivering the Broncos their first loss, and consequently both teams will finish the Week 5 with a 4-1 record. Take the Patriots to win by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick : New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals

Houston (2-2) has showed already that they have a QB and steller WRs, which makes the Texans Offense very powerful. However, their biggest problem is their defense, having a lot of difficulties to stop both the opponents' passing game and running game as well. One of the reasons is the high number of casualties in the defensive unit with several important injured players. So, we have a team that despite being capable of scoring a lot of points in a good day, they will also suffer a lot of points too, thanks to the weaknesses present in their defense right now.

Arizona (1-2) after that last MNF defeat and a shameful home loss display against the Colts, had a Bye Week and they are now returning to competition with another home game and surely we will see this Cards team up and ready to win this game and get their first home win this season. Arizona has a good, seasoned quarterback and Kurt Warner has very good Wide Receivers to play with, the greatest problem with his offense is with the rushing game, which is being very bad, but I believe that on this game, the Cards will seize the opportunity to earn some important yards on the ground against the Texans D. The Arizona's defensive unit had a dismal performance against the Colts and I honestly expect that they had used this Bye Week to deeply review and analyze everything that went wrong in that game, so they can avoid doing again the same mistakes in this match.

I'm not seeing the Cardinals losing two straight games at home, specially when they badly need to win, against a depleted Texans' defense, facing a lot of problems on their own, which Arizona will surely exploit thanks to their great offensive options. I believe in a home win for the Cards and I really trust that Arizona will win by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Peyton Manning is in great shape, he is doing his best start ever, he is one of the best Quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL. He and Pierre Garçon are getting along very well, working together to decide the games in the Colts' favor very soon in the match and I think that will happen again in this game. If the Colts' O is very good and their performance is enhanced as a unit thanks to their excellent QB, the Indianapolis defense has been also outstanding, playing very well against the both opponents' running game and passing game, making a lot of pressure on the opposition's Quarterback and provoking a lot of errors in the adversaries' offense.

Tennessee has a very good team, their roster is very capable, but they are playing very badly. The Titans D, which once was the heart of the team, is being completely horrible, and they have some important casualties in their secundary, which will complicate their life against the Colts O. The Tennesse offense has been very weak, the team is relying only on their rushing game and they will face a team that is defending very well against the ground offense thisseason.

Historically this Titans' team does well at home against Indianapolis but for what I've seen this season of both teams, I only one winner and that winner is the Colts' team. They have a Quarterback that is playing very well, the Titans' D has been very bad, the Colts' D is being very impressive, mainly against the ground offense, and with all these factors mixed together, I believe that the Colts will win this game easily, specially by the fact that Peyton Manning doesn't have any problems in playing on the road in a Sunday Night Football, no extra pressure for him, he even loves this extra exposure and he even plays better with all the media and public attention focused on him. Henceforth, take the small favorite in the road and please, do me a favor: enjoy the game!


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

The New York Jets (3-1) offense rely on their rookie QB Mark Sanchez, which is doing a nice NFL career start so far, to get the job done, but he will need a lot of games on his legs to become a good quarterback. The stronger spot of this Jets team this season is their defense, with great performances, being very well organized in the field and playing very well against the opponent's passing game adversário. LB Calvin Pace is returning to the team and he will play a vital role in his team to stop the opponent's rushing game, and for me, he is one of the best players in the league for that particular job. The Jets offense has some ups and downs, but I believe that against Miami's defense, they can get the upper hand.

Miami (1-3) will start again with QB Chad Henne for this game, he is not a bad player, but for me, the only thing he does well is to throw deep and not much else for now. Perhaps he can be a great quarterback in the future, but he has a long way to go. It is true that offensively, the Fins had everything going their way, but this Jets D has nothing to do with the Bills defense, in fact, I think this Miami offense will have huge difficulties in getting something positive from this game in the scoring department, despite having a good rusher, but the Dolphins will face a great running defense, suplemented with the return of LB Calvin Pace. Miami's D has not been very well this season so far and I believe they will have some troubles facing the Jets offense tonight.

Overall, I think that the Gang Green has everything to win this game, their defense has been very strong, the return of Calvin Pace is another advantage for the Jets, and despite being on the road and playing in the Fins home, I believe that the Jets will have more chances to progress down the field and score some points than Miami will against the great Jets defense. So, take the small fav on the road and enjoy the game.


Pick: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek, NYJ -1 -110/1,91 Wagerstreet

[TommyGold]

Below are my Week 5 results recap:

27 - Minnesota Vikings @ Saint Louis Rams: Minnesota Vikings -10 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (WIN)
28 - Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs +9 -125/1,80 The Greek (WIN)
29 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (LOSS)
30 - Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes (WIN)
31 - New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos: New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes (LOSS)
32 - Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (WIN)
33 - Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes (WIN)
34 - New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek (LOSS)

SIDES: 5-3 (Week 5: +1,57 units);

NFL 2009 Season results: 18-16 (+0,31 units won/34 units risked);
SIDES: 17-13 (+2,4 units won/30 units risked);
TOTALS 1-3 (-2,09 units lost/4 units risked).

[TommyGold]

Another week, another round, 10 more picks to play:

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker & Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins

Kansas City is still winless but I believe they can get their first win this week, they have improved a lot and QB Matt Cassel is starting to show his good qualities and that he is indeed, a good bet for the Chiefs. Their offense has improved as well, but they still have some problems to solve on their defense and they have to fix it in order to start winning some games.

Washington is having a complicated week, which is never good for a team, they are facing some internal (locker room) issues and they had played badly their last games, relying too much on their Home Games, because on the road, the Redskins are simply clueless. Their offense has not been well, their wins were provided by their defensive unit and that explains why when Washington wins a game, it is by a short difference.

I see here a good chance for the Chiefs to win their first game of the season, the prospect of playing a KAN ML +220 (3,20) is quite tempting, but on the other hand I wouldn't be surprised to see the Redskins to win by only 1 FG difference. I think this will be a close and ugly game and I see a lot of value on the pointspread's puppy, so take Kansas City Chiefs plus the points.


Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals

Houston defense has several problems and today they face a pretty good offense, which has good options and the Texans will have a hard time to stop them. Houston's O doesn't have a very good rushing game but their excellent passing game makes it up, thanks to the great quality of their Wide Receivers and that is the strong spot of the Texans, but on this match they will face a defense that has played very well lately.

Cincinnati is doing a great season thanks to the balance between their offensive and defensive units, with the former showing a lot of "agression" and doing what has to be done in the decisive moments while the later has been playing quite well too, with their QB Carson Palmer in great shape after recovering from injury, with great options to choose from his array of Wide Receivers, which are performing in great manner. Besides, Cedric Benson is also shining on the rushing game, allowing the Bengals to provoke a lot of damage on their opponents' defenses. Overall, this team is playing quite well in all their departments.

Cincinnati will play in front of their audience and with the way the Bengals are playing and having the home field advantage, I believe this team can win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

[TommyGold]

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As all we know, Carolina is a Running Football team, it's where their game is stronger and they will use it again and again today. Their defense has not been quite well this season, but with the return of their great quality safety, I'm sure they will improve for this game. I believe the Panthers will cause a lot of troubles to Bucs D with their rushing game and they will win the game thanks to it.

I don't have much to say about Tampa Bay, it is for me a weak team, specially on their defense, having great difficulties to stop both the opponents' rushing game and the passing game as well, and on their offense, they are having problems to fill the quarterback position, no matter who plays, he won't give any more offensive power to his team, which has only 27 points scored in their last 2 or 3 games, since the Giants were able to defeat the Bucs by 24-0.

Despite playing at home, I don't see that as a major advantage for the Buccaneers, and historically the Panthers get well against this Bucs team if we take in account the last seasons games. With all this factors in mind, I trully believe in another win for the Carolina Panthers by 1 or more touchdowns, so having to lay only 3 points on this game is a nice value proposition.


Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

[TommyGold]

Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders

Philadelphia is in my opinion one of the most powerful teams in the NFL, they are well served in the quarterback position, with a good starting QB, even the backups are good players. They also have good rushers and good wide receivers, which turns this team very powerful in their offense and allows them to score a lot of points. Their defense hasn't played bad either, but we should stress that the Eagles have spanked a lot of very low caliber teams, but truth be told, Philadelphia will face a weaker them than those faced by the Eagles.

After their first week display, we could had said that Oakland maybe could have a decent season, but after a few weeks, the reality is grim: their weak offense hurts our eyes, their quarterback is worthless, he throws at random the ball without any quality criteria to his Wide Receivers, which aren't good stuff either and even the rushing game, which should their stronger sector, has been completely out. On the defense, the Raiders have been miserable, I dunno if you watched their last game, but this team on the second half, simply gave up the game, which is a very worrying and troubling sign. Frankly, in my several years NFL experience of watching hundreds of game, these Raiders are absolutely at this moment the worst team I ever seen play in the NFL, but this is just my opinion.

Overall, I can only add that I'm only seeing an Eagles, Eagles and Eagles Big Time Win, I think Philadelphia has everything to win this game by more than 2 touchdowns.


Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker