Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

Seattle is having a lot of problems with many important players injured, depleting their offensive and defensive of the needed quality to win games in this league. The Seahawks will visit a team that has a very good offense thanks to their franchise QB, one of the best in the NFL and on a field that is very hard to play and harder to win. The Seattle's offense is going to face a good opposition and to be honest, I'm not seeing them doing much damage to the Colts, it's the Seahawks D that will have the major troubles to stop Manning and Garçon.

Peyton Manning has been top-notch in this season start, thrilling with short and deep passes, and with the help of the second year WR Pierre Garçon, a lot of damage has been delivered on the opponents' defenses. The Colts D is playing very well this year, doing their job as expected. Indianapolis has a very close team, very complete in all the sectors of the field, which makes them very dangerous and they are also in top form.

I'm not seeing the Seattle defense putting a stop on the Manning / Garçon duo nor their offense to complicate matters to the Colts D, and therefore, with the edge of having the home field advantage, Indianapolis has everything to win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -10 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati has a good QB and Carson Palmer has great offensive options, which makes his team a dangerous one on the passing game. The Bengals have also used Cedric Benson a lot on the rushing game and I think that he is a good choice and he has proved it in the early season. So, we have a Bengals O with good choices to play both by the air on the ground, which makes this offensive team very dangerous. Remarkably, Cincinnati has also done well on the defense, which is a nice surprise, and I believe that with all these qualities, they might qualify to the Playoffs.

Cleveland changed their starting QB, but that won't change, because both players for that role are very weak after all and this Browns O is having a lot of troubles to score points, only 1 touchdown scored in their last 9 games says it all. The Cleveland defense is not playing good either, the team gives up a lot of ground against the rushing game and they don't do much damage against the opponents' passing game. Truth be told, this Browns D doesn't have any organization whatsoever and that is the main reason why Cleveland suffers so many points per game.

I enjoy seeing these Bengals playing again with QB Carson Palmer and I'm positively surprised to see the agressiveness that the Cincinatti defense puts in their game, because the Bengals have excellent offensive weapons and their defense is doing a nice job, and they are visiting a team that is very weak on both sides of the game, offensive and defensive alike. If the Bengals want to reach their goals on this season and make to the Playoffs, they can't lose these easy games. Cincinati will prove their superiority on this game and win it by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Saint Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

I don't have much to say positively about Saint Louis, this is a weak team on all the sectors. Their QB is weak, their offense is weak (the exception being their rushing game), their defense is weak (miserable might be a better adjective). Then you have a lot of important players sidelined with injuries, which depletes a team that has already few quality players to contend against the other teams in the league. So things are not going quite well for the Rams and their coaching staff will have to come up with a lot of patchwork in order to play this game.

San Francisco had a heart-breaking defeat last week, thanks to Brett Favre and Greg Lewis, with the former throwing a last second pass to the later, but the 49ers head coach already told to the press that the way they lost in Minneapolis won't cause troubles to the team, it will be quite the opposite, San Francisco is now much more ready and motivated than before for this game. Their calling card is an agressive defense, with put a lot fo work against the passing game and the rushing game as well, as we saw them do against the Vikes, where they neutralized with some degree of success the best rusher of the league (Adrian Peterson only had 85 yards for 19 carries, scoring is lowest average in his first three games with only 4.5 yards). The 49ers O shows a decent QB with good options on the passing game thanks to their nice wide receivers.

With all the issues plaguing the Rams, knowing that the 49ers are the best team in all the field sectors, it is my belief that the 49ers will make the most of their home field advantage and win easily this game by 2 or more touchdowns.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -9 -110 (1,91) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay has a very good QB, but Aaron Rodgers suffers a lot of sacks and if he plays in this game like he did in the previous games, Minnesota will "take good care" of him. The Vikings D is very strong against the passing game, but they are even better when facing the opponents' rushing game, showing a lot of agressiveness and unless the Packers offensive line does an outstanding game, we will see Aaron Rodgers suffering a lof of sacks instead of making more good plays. Packers D has been very weak lately, if we don't count with their season opening, and if their running defense doesn't dramatically improve, they won't be able to stop the best rusher in the league, RB Adrian Peterson, and they will have a lot of problems to stop the Vikes ground offense.

This is the QB Brett Favre game that everyone wants to see, both the supports and the players as well, and all the Minnesota roster has stated they are supporting Brett Favre on this game, so everyone is on the same page and hopes to see him shine big time. For the veteran QB, this will be one of the most important games of his long career, with an added revenge factor motivation for Favre to show to his former team, that the "Packers" shouldn't let him go like they did.

The Vikings have this year a good an experience QB, something they didn't had before, they have the best rusher in the league, the head coach is not binded to play only the rushing game anymore, since he has now someone who can deliver the ball to his receivers, even in a very dramatic way like we saw in their last game, which for any opponent facing this Vikings O, is a living nightmare.

I believe that Favre will do his best to win this game, the team will support him, so the usual rivalry between Vikings and Packers as an added motive, and the edge after comparing Green Bay and Minnesota goes for the Vikings, not only because they have the home field advantage, but also because they have the better team, both on the offensive plan, and on the defensive plan as well. Henceforth, I think the Minnesota Vikings are going to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Below are my Week 4 results recap:

20 - Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: Baltimore Ravens +1,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (LOSS)
21 - New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs: New York Giants -8,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)
22 - Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Tennessee Titans -3 +100 (2,00) Legends (LOSS)
23 - Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -10 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)
24 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: Cincinnati Bengals -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker(LOSS)
25 - Saint Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 49ers -9 -110 (1,91) The Greek (WIN)
26 - Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)

SIDES: 4-3. (Week 4: +0,64 units)
NFL 2009 Season results - SIDES: 12-10; TOTALS 1-3. Overall: 13-13. Balance: -1,26 units

[TommyGold]

Another week, another round, 8 more picks to play:

Minnesota Vikings @ Saint Louis Rams: Minnesota Vikings -10 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs +9 -125/1,80 The Greek, KAN +9 -115/1,87 RebateWager

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes, ATL +3 -115/1,87 Bodog

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos: New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek, NYJ -1 -110/1,91 Wagerstreet

[TommyGold]

Minnesota Vikings @ Saint Louis Rams

Minnesota has doing very well in this season start (4-0) thanks to their "new" weapon: if on the last season, their offense was predictable, using always the ground with Adrian Petersson, this time is the other way around, because the opponents' defenses can't just watch the best rusher in the league, but they also have to worry about the good passing game that the Vikings now have. Besides, they also have a nice defense, even if the stats say otherwise, truth is this season the Vikes aren't doing so well like last season, but you should not worry about it yet, at least, not in this game. They really have a good defensive unit, with 7 to 10 top-notch quality players, capable of stopping both the opponent's running game (10th in the season) and the passing game as well, showing also the ability to deliver pressure on the opponent's Quarterback and even getting a lot of sacks in the process (16 this season, 8 only in the last game against the Packers, 1st in the league).

Saint Louis are 0-4 this season, a complete misery, an authentic disaster, only 24 points scored in two games, 108 points conceded... I don't see Rams winning a lot of games this season, not this one for sure, their defense has been horrible, with a lot of key injured players, showing a very bad defensive organization, the team doesn't know what to do against the opponent's offense. If we look to their offense, the Rams are also dreadful in their passing game, and despite having a good rusher, the RB Steven Jackson, this poor fella will face one of the best ground defense units against the rush, and no matter how hard I look into this game, I simply can't see what the Rams can't really do to get a good result in this match.

The Vikings are doing fine, showing good form, they have been well organized, while the Rams are in terrible shape, ineffective as a team, and for me Minnesota will win BIG this game, at least by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Minnesota Vikings -10 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sincerely I don't see anything special about this Cowboys this year, it is true that they are capable to fight for the Playoffs, but not much more than that. Terrell Owens could be a troublemaker, but for what I've seen Dallas playing, he is a great loss for this offense and his absence has been very noticed in the Cowboys' passing game. On the other hand, the Dallas' running game is very well served and the team will use it a lot in this match. The Cowboys D is not a safe or a reliable one and they haven't performed at a good level as most of their supporters would expect.

Kansas City has a decent QB but he doesn't have many options available on his offense and despite that, he has attempted and succeeded in getting some points to his team, so we can say that is in the offense that Chiefs have more difficulties, but on this match, I think Matt Cassel can really do some damage. On the defense, Kansas City is not one of the best teams in the league, but it is not one of the worst either, they did a decent job holding the Giants and if they do the same thing against the Cowboys, I believe that are capable to fight till the end for a win in this game.

I'm not seeing the Cowboys winning this game by more than 1 touchdown, in fact I believe the Chiefs have some chances to win this game until the last minute, so I see value on the dog for this match.


Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +9 -125/1,80 The Greek, KAN +9 -115/1,87 RebateWager

[TommyGold]

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati (3-1) has started very well the season, they are 2-0 "perfect" on the road, only a loss on their first game, they had a great win against the Steelers, but I think that against the Ravens this good moment will come to an end. The Bengals have a good QB, excellent options available on the passing game and a nice rushing with RB Cedric Benson, but he will have a lot of problems against the outstanding Ravens' run defense. Cincy D has been very well so far and that is perhaps the main reason why the Bengals are having a very nice record this early in the season, but for this game, they will face a good rusher and a QB that is improving game after game and knows how to take the correct decisions throughout the game, what can quite complicate the life to the Bengals' D.

Despite last week defeat, Baltimore (3-1) is still for me one of the best teams in the NFL, very well organized throughout the field, their rushing game and passing game is performing very well, their Offense has scored a lot of points against all the teams they already face this season. Defensively Baltimore is a very strong team, not as strong like last season, but still one of the best in the league, playing very agressively, creating a lot of troubles to the opponents' quarterbacks and they are very strong against the opposition's running game.

After their last loss, and the way it happened, I don't see how the Ravens can possible lose this game and on top they have the home field advantage (2-0 home). Baltimore is a much better team on the offense and on the defense than the Bengals are, and I think they will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers

Atlanta (2-1) has a good QB, great quality Wide Receivers, which makes the air offense of the Falcons very dangerous. This is undoubtedly their strong spot, specially if we add their excellent TE Tony Gonzalez to the mix, and it is the Falcons O that will in my opinion make the difference in this game in favor of Atlanta. On the defensive plan, the Falcons had ups and downs, they have not a bad defensive unit, but they rely more on their offense than on their defense during the matches.

San Francisco (3-1) is doing a very nice start, but for this game is up to the 49ers' QB the responsability of solving this game for the West Coast team, if they want to keep winning, because their main rusher will not play and surely Shaun Hill will have to rely more on the passing game, which makes this 49ers' O a little bit predictable for this game. Anyway, is not the offense the best side of this San Francisco team, at least is not the major player in their wins, but their standout defense, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well, but despite their qualities, I believe that the Falcons O will give the 49ers D a lot of trouble with their WRs and TEs.

For me, the Falcons have a better team than the 49ers in the overall, the 49ers are stronger in the defense while the Falcons have the better offense, but I believe that in this game, the Atlanta Offense will prevail and therefore, I have to go with the small underdog on the road.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes, ATL +3 -115/1,87 Bodog