Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When everybody thought that the Giants would have some problems due to Plaxico Burress absence, but the team has done well both on the Offense and on the Defense, and for what I've seen, they maybe have with the Ravens the stronger NFL's set of players at the moment in all the sectors.

The Defense is playing very well and confident both on the Rushing Game and on the Passing Game as well. Obviously we can say that Dallas on their last game massacred the Giants with their Rushing Game, but this was a consequence of the Giants head coach defensive options concerning the Cowboys' Passing Game, which left the Giants D opened to the opponent's Rushing Game, which will not happen on this game and the team will perform much better on their defensive end. Offensively speaking, I think the Giants will use a lot more their Ground Offense in the early game and when occasion arises, they will switch to their Passing Game.

What can I tell You about the Buccanneers? Tampa Bay has performed quite well on the offensive end, but in this game they will face a great Defense and the Bucs O will not have an easy task ahead. However, their weak spot in on their Defense, besides an important missing player, they show enormous problems both against the Rushing Game and against the Passing Game as well, and when that happens against the Giants, defeat is a certain outcome.

With this mismatch against the Buccaneers on their defensive end, with the Giants mentaly very strong, we can expect them to win Big this game.


Pick: New York Giants -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (Diamond) / NYG -6,5 -103 (1,971) Pinnacle

[TommyGold]

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco had been very good on the defensive end, but they will not be able to stop the best NFL's Rusher which will play by the Vikes, and they can't even entertain the idea of having their defensive scheme focused against RB Adrian Peterson, otherwise they will overwhelmed by the Vikings' Passing Game, ergo the 49ers Defense has a very troublesome task ahead. Knowing that their Offense is not their best suit, specially on the Passing Game, we can expect San Francisco to rely on their Rushing Game, where they have an excellent option, but they will face a great Running Defense, which will make life harder for the 49ers O.

Minnesota is playing very well on both ends, defensive and offensive. Their D is very strong, both against the opponent's Passing Game and Rushing Game as well, which just makes things worse for their opponents offense. Veteran QB Brett Favre has played very intelligently, despite even suffering some sacks, but he is not taking unnecessary risks and that has translated in zero interceptions. The reason why he is prefering to play in a safer way is quite simple actually: Favre knows he can rely on Adrian Peterson ability to get 1st downs on one carrie, and when you have a such talented running back, you don't have to take much risks on the passing game, and that is a wise decision from him.

Having the best roster of both teams, and also the most complete, the Vikings also have the home field advantage, which makes them the obvious favorite for this game. Besides, what the 49ers have to offer to this game regarding their edges, is nullified by the Minnesota's strong spots, which in fact can surpass San Francisco, thus creating a nice mismatch for us to exploit and I believe that the Vikings will be able to win this game by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1,95) Legendz / MIN -6,5 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

[TommyGold]

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks

Despite the Urlacher's big absence due to injury, Chicago still has an outstanding Defense and they prove it on their last game, being very agressive and they didn't allowed the Pittsburgh offense to do their work. QB Jay Cutler after a terrible season opener, managed to change his game and made a good performance on his last match, which is a good sign for the Chicago Offense, since their opponents' defense will now have to worry about him more than they thought before, thus opening the Bears' range of options, improving their Rushing Game with RB Matt Forte and benefiting also from the WR Devin Hester's speed.

The main factor that made me to side with Chicago, is the probable absence of Seahawks' Star QB Matt Hasselbeck, which is capable to miss this game, and in that case, things might be easier for the Bears. The Seattle's strong side is undoubtedly their Offense, but today the Seahawks will face one of the better and most agressive defenses in the NFL, and their Offense will have a lot of difficulties ahead in order to advance in the field. Seattle's D is very weak, mainly against the opponents' rushing game, they always suffer a lot of hardships, and knowing that Chicago has a good ground offense, the edge goes to the road favorite.

If QB Jay Cutler does an intelligent game like he did last week, and I believe he will do it again, the Bears will have good chances to win this game. I'm expecting to see good plays that will open extra holes on the Seahawks defense for RB Matt Forte to exploit and even some lab plays with WR Devin Hester, because these Seahawks are very feeble and the mismatches between them and the Bears gives the edge to the small favorite and I expect Chicago to win this match.


Pick: Chicago Bears -1 -120 (1,83) The Greek / CHI -1 -118 (1,847) Pinnacle

[TommyGold]

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills

What can I say about New Orleans that you already don't know...? Well, lets start to talk about their weakest side, their Defense, which has improved a lot, and has nothing to do with the Saints D from last season. It is true that New Orleans now suffers a lot of lost yards per game, but that is completely normal. What changed for the best, was the reliability of the defense, the players are surer and have more confidence in themselves and they don't give anymore the wide openings of old and they have made a lot of interceptions.

Now, let's talk about the Saints Offense. They have one of the best QB of the league, Drew Brees, and when a QB of this caliber has one Offense at his disposal like the Saints have, things can get quite ugly for the opponents' defense. New Orleans is outstanding on the passing game and if we take in consideration that this year, the Saints' rushing game has improved its quality, then you have to acknowledge that this Saints O is much more powerful than it was last season.

Buffalo has done very good games in this season's start, QB Trent Edwards has played very solid and has done his job. The great problem the Bills will face today is how these Saints can score points in the board with ease, and when that happens, the Bills will be forced to recover those points and score a few more than the Saints. And demanding that from QB Trent Edwards, forcing him to take greater risks when his team is trailing behind the Saints, might lead to interceptions and turnovers, which translates to more possession time for New Orleans and a certain "death" of the Bills during the game. On the defensive end, the team has been reasonable, and when I say reasonable, I remember that against the Patriots, the Bills Defense played like their were completely sleeping in the field.

For me, New Orleans is a team that can cause and deliver a lot of damages against any team thanks to their offensive power conducted by a great QB. These Saints have the tools to score early in the game and with that early lead, they put a lot of pressure on the opponent's QB, which will provoke errors on the opposition and for that I think New Orleans will win this game by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: New Orleans Saints -5,5 -110 (1,91) Legendz (5 Dimes) / NOS -6 +102 (2,02) Pinnacle

[TommyGold]

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals

We all know that the Indianapolis team has one of the finest QB of the league and a future inductee in the NFL Hall of Fame: Peyton Manning. Even when the Colts O is not performing as expected, you can always count on Manning to fix it, to find a solution that will win the game for the Indianapolis team. Indeed, Peyton Manning is a QB of an enormous quality. The Colts' rushing game this year has been very good actually, we all know that this team on the offensive end depends a lot of their passing game, but when it was needed, the ground offense has got the job done.

The major question for this game doesn't lie on the Colts offense, but on the Indianapolis defense: how are they going to stop Boldin and Fitzgerald? Truth is, they can stop one of them, but never both when they are on the field at the same time. And if take to account that the Cards have a good third option to penetrate deep in the Colts territory, the Indy D will have serious troubles to stop the Arizona O.

Arizona has a very good offense, with a superb QB, which has outstanding weapons for deep penetration at his disposal with the WRs of great quality, that can get things very difficult to any good defense on the NFL. If the Cardinals O is very strong and has been this season their best side, on the defensive end things have not gone well for Arizona and the defensive team can be thankful for having an Offense that has saved their rear end on the field in several occasions.

For me, the Cardinals have here a good chance to win this game, first thanks to a Colts' Short Week, and second, the edge on the Offense goes to the Cards team, since they have more firepower on their offensive arsenal than the Colts. Both defenses will suffer a lot against their opponent's Offense and we will see a offensive power game show, with lots of touchdowns scored by both teams, a Big Time Shoot Out match and a home win for the Arizona Cardinals.


Picks: Over 48 -110 (1,91) The Greek / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle;

Arizona Cardinals -2,5 -110 (1,91) Diamond (Bodog, Sportbet, BetUS) / ARI -2,5 -114 (1,877) Pinnacle

[TommyGold]

Below are the Week 3 results:

12 - Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets: Under 37 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (LOSS)

13 - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (LOSS)

14 - New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New York Giants -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (Diamond) (WIN)

15 - San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1,95) Legendz (LOSS)

16 - Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks: Chicago Bears -1 -120 (1,83) The Greek Pinnacle (WIN)

17 - New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills: New Orleans Saints -5,5 -110 (1,91) Legendz (5 Dimes) (WIN)

18 - Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 48 -110 (1,91) The Greek (LOSS)

19 - Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -2,5 -110 (1,91) Diamond (Bodog, Sportbet, BetUS) (LOSS)

SIDES: 3-3; TOTALS 0-2. (Week 3: -2,35 units)
SIDES: 8-7; TOTALS 1-3. Overall: 9-10. Balance: -1,9 units

[TommyGold]

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: Baltimore Ravens +1,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker, Bet Jamaica, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Boyle Sports, Centrebet;
BAL +2 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle; BAL +2 -110 (1,91) WSEX, Bodog, Sportbet, Betonline, Partybets and Gamebookers; BAL +1,5 -108 (1,93) Canbet;

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs: New York Giants -8,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker, Bet 365, Ladbrokes, WSEX, Boyle Sports, Centrebet, bwin;
NYG -8 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle; NYG -8,5 -108 (1,93) Canbet; NYG +8,5 -104 (1,96) 188bet;

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville: Tennessee Titans -3 +100 (2,00) Legends, Betonline, Ladbrokes, Stan James, bwin;
TEN -3 +105 (2,05) Expekt; TEN -3 -105 (1,95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica, 5Dimes, JustBet, Sportbet, Bet365, Canbet, Partybets and Gamebookers; TEN -3 -106 (1,943) Pinnacle; TEN -3 -106 (1,94) 188bet;

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis: Indianapolis Colts -10 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker, Legends, Bet Jamaica, Betonline, Sportbet, BEtUS, Ladbrokes, Centrebet;
IND -10 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle; IND -10 -108 (1,93) Canbet; IND -10 -109 (1,92) 188bet;

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: Cincinnati Bengals -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker, Legends, 5Dimes, The Greek, Bet Jamaica, Sportbet, BetUS, WSEX, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Boyle Sports, Centrebet, bwin;
CIN -5,5 -110 (1,91) BetOnline, JustBet, ; CIN -5,5 -102 (1,9 Expekt; CIN -6 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle; CIN -108 (1,93) Canbet;

Saints Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 49ers -9 -110 (1,91) The Greek;
SFO -9,5 -104 (1,962) Pinnacle; SFO -9,5 -105 (1,95) Unibet; SFO -10 -104 (1,94) 188bet; SFO -108 (1,93) Canbet; SFO -110 (1,91) Bookmaker; Bet365, Ladbrokes, Boyle Sports, Centrebet;

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -3,5 -110 (1,91) Legends, Unibet;
MIN -3,5 -108 (1,93) Canbet; MIN -3,5 -109 (1,917) Pinnacle; MIN -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker, The Greek, Ladbrokes, Stan James, Centrebet;

[TommyGold]

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

Baltimore has never won against New England, but I think this time it will be different. The Ravens are playing very well in all the important sectors in the field. QB Joe Flacco has improved a lot, much more confident on his decisions during this year, thanks to the time his OL provides him to take the best calls and also because he has good offensive players to which he can deliver his passes.

This improvement on the Baltimore's Offense, playing very well both on the passing game and on the rushing game as well, offsets the lower performance of the Ravens D, by far their strongest spot. We could say that the Baltimore's Defence is weaker because they suffer a lot more points than on the previous season, but for me that is not the real reason: in fact, the Ravens D is attacking a lot more, taking more risks. And when they are called to win a game, like it happened on week 2, Ravens D was outstanding, earning a winner. Baltimore has one of the best defenses of the NFL, if not even the best of the league.

Curiously the Patriots have been very good on the Defense, but they are playing very poor on the Offense, which is the opposite of the Ravens performances. When in the early season everything pointed to some struggle on the defense and a show of force on the offense, we are getting the opposite. The reason why the Pats O is not doing well is due to lack of form of their QB Tom Brady, which hasn't returned to his good old self. Only when that happens, New England will become again a great offensive powerhouse, something that I believe will happen someday this season, but not on this match.

Wes Welker is missing due to injury, he is a very important player for Brady, we still don't know for sure if he will play in this game, the reports I've got say that he hasn't practiced, which is never a good sign. The Pats have played poorly on the passing game, but on the rushing game they are doing very well, but for this match, they will face the best ground defense team in the NFL and the Ravens will make things very hard for the Pats' rushers.

This is a game where Baltimore shows up at a superior level than New England, the Ravens have a great Defense and their Offense has delivered the goods with a lot of points scored, but for this game, life won't be easy for the Ravens, because the Patriots are defending very well, but the New England's offense is having a lot of troubles on the air and their winners were due to their rushing game, which will have a very difficult time against the best ground defense team in the league, and that is why I see a win on the road for the Baltimore Ravens.


Pick: Baltimore Ravens +1,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs

When everybody thought that the Giants would have a lot of issues on their Offense due to what happened to Plaxico Burress, the young receivers incorporated in the offensive team are taking care of the business. This Giants franchise is perhaps one of the best organized teams in all the field sectors, everybody knows their job and what to do and that translates in success in this season start. QB Eli Manning has been very good and secure, showing a good chemistry with his excellent young wide receivers and that is why they are scoring a lot of points in the offense. The Giants are also playing very well in their Defense, showing a lot of focus and they don't give their opposition many chances to progress down the field. Bottom line, this Giants' team is quite strong and complete.

Kansas City has a great problem to solve on their offense: QB Matt Cassel is a good plays, not bad at all, however he doesn't have the manpower to give continuity to his plays, like we saw on his last game where he did 14/18 for only 90 Yards, which is simply awful. Knowing that the Chiefs will face one of the best defenses in the NFL, things won't be pretty on this side of the game. If we look at the Chiefs D, they aren't playing good either, overall, and truth be told, Kansas City has not been well in this early season in any sector and it will be painful to watch them play against these Giants.

In conclusion, if New York is a very complete team, the Chiefs are the opposite, the Giants D will face a weak offense, and the Giants O has everything to make things harder for the Kansas City defense. For me, this Giants on the road have the upperhand and they will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: New York Giants -8,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Time is running out for Tennessee, they lost their first 3 games of the season which is very bad for the team and if they don't start winning this week, their season is over. So, we have the Titans in a do-or-die situation, this is a must win game for them and for me, they have enough quality to pull it off. They have a decent QB and an excellent rushing game with Chris Johnson, very physical and capable of winning games, but the great problem of these Titans this year is on their pass defense, conceding a lot of points, which is odd since they have on the paper an outstanding Defense and they shouldn't suffer so much points like they did, so I'm expecting the Titans D to rise up to the occasion, doing their job as expected, because they have the quality and the skills to do so.

Jacksonville has a nice QB too and like the Titans, they also have a good rushing game, but I think that Jones Drew has not the same quality as Chris Johnson. This season, the Jags O is having a lot of troubles, too many rookies and things are not going well for them. Their offensive game plan is very predictable, they always go for the rushing game and the Titans head coach knows that and will surely prep is team against it, since Tennessee has a good ground defense. The Jags D only did a good first game against the Colts, after that they conceded a lot of points, they aren't doing well and that is not a good thing.

Tennesse can't lose this one, even if it is on the road, and quite frankly, I'm not seeing this Titans team with all the skilled players they have ending 0-4 in the week 4, they have the best team, they usually do well against Jacksonville winning almost every game they had with the Jags, so I think Tennessee will win this game by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: Tennessee Titans -3 +100 (2,00) Legends