New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints
The New England Patriots are getting better as a team and for me it's one of the biggest contenders to the Super Bowl. The Patriots O is a real luxury, the team has one of the best quarterbacks ever, QB Tom Brady, who has great weapons at his disposal: WR Randy Moss, WR Wes Welker and TE Ben Watson. This means that the Pats' passing game is undoubtedly on of the best in the NFL, if not even the best! With a healthy WR Wes Welker, New England has produced much more in the offense and the connection "Tom Brady-Wes Welker" is really explosive.
Patriots' rushing game is also well served, even with the injury of RB Fred Taylor and consequent absence, the team has rushers as RB Laurence Maroney who is playing well and RB Sammy Morris, or even RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis. With these high quality rushers, the Patriots have the best quality offense in the NFL, because they have an outstanding quarterback, excellent wide receivers and great rushers.
On the defense, the Pats had some ups and downs in the past and they will have certainly some troubles defending the Saints' passing game, which itself is the best of the league this season. Despite the youth of the Pats' secondary, I consider it a very good defense when they are focused, doing a good man coverage and they can do some regular interceptions. The New England's rushing defense is not all that bad, but I think that for this game, the Patriots will give some room to the Saints in this kind of game.
The New Orleans Saints haven't lost yet on this season and they're a number one seed for the playoffs. Their offense has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, QB Drew Brees, who is doing a great season, and he can count with WR Marques Colston, Devery Henderson WR and TE Jeremy Shockey to pass the ball, all these guys are very good players in their functions. The Saints passing game is not as strong as the Patriots, but is their best strength and QB Drew Brees loves to throw deep balls. Their rushing game is also quite good, RB Reggie Bush, RB Pierre Thomas and even RB Mike Bell are very good athletes, and the Saints can cause a lot of problems to many defenses in the NFL. Overall, have no doubts, these New Orleans Saints are an offense powerhouse.
The Saints defense started very well, but since some of the players in their secondary were injured, the team has lost a lot of quality in this area and the secondary performance has been lousy lately. The Saints D will face a great offense powerhouse too and I think they'll have huge problems to stop the Brady, Moss and Welker trio. They have been saved by their offense, which can outscore almost every team in the NFL when they feel the pressure and the Saints offense like to play with the pressure and they perform a lot more focused with that pressure.
Thanks to the absences on the Saints secondary, I believe that New Orleans will suffer their first loss in the season, because the Patriots will eat the Saints' secondary alive. On the other side, the Pats defense The key for the Pats win on this game will be their ability to deliver enough pressure on the Saints OL, doing a good man coverage on their secondary and trying to get some sacks on Drew Brews, who might have some opportunities to send his deep balls and surely the New England defense will take some damage thanks to those plays, but in the overall, I believe that the Patriots will prevail in the end and I think that we will see here again a game like the last Pats @ Colts, with huge points scored in this game and that's the reason why I also see enough in value in the over.
Pick: New England Patriots ML +110 (2.10) 5Dimes & Over 55.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek
Below is my Week 12 results recap:
83 - Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (27-35: WIN)
84 - Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills: Miami Dolphins -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek (31-14: LOSS)
85 - Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-27: WIN)
86 - Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers: Kansas City Chiefs +14 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (43-14: LOSS)
87 - Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans: Arizona Cardinals +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (20-17: PUSH/VOID)
88 - New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (MNF): New England Patriots ML +110 (2.10) 5Dimes (38-17: LOSS)
89 - New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (MNF): Over 55.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (38-17: LOSS)
SIDES: 2-3-1; TOTALS: 0-1 (Week 11: -2.14 units);
NFL 2009 Season record: 44-44-1 (-3.99 units lost/88 units risked);
SIDES: 42-36 (+2.15 units won/78 units risked);
TOTALS 2-8 (-6.14 units lost/10 units risked).
Losing a total by a single half-point hurts... Will have to look back to what went wrong on the last couple of weeks... 3-7-1 on sides, awful performance. Since the end of Week 9 that I'm going downhill and this week the NFL was the black spot on a week that had a +24 units of profit on NBA, NCAAB and NHL... :s
NFL 2009 Week 13, 9 point spreads to risk:
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: Denver Broncos -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Oakland Raiders +15 -110 (1.91) The Greek
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins: New Orleans Saints -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek
St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears -9 -110 (1.91) The Greek
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: New England Patriots -3 -125 (1.80) Bet Jamaica
San Diego Chargers vs Cleveland Browns: San Diego Chargers -13.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF): Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF): Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: the oddsmakers do not know what to do about this game, so they opened the lines with a PK on each side and let the market work. The Jaguars are 6-5 this season and currently have one foot in the last wild card that gives access to the playoffs, but with Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the footsteps, I doubt they can keep this lead...
However, the motivation for this game should be enough to start with a win a series of 3 home games. And knowing that they receive after the Texans, Miami and Indianapolis in the next few weeks, imagine the moral boost of facing the Colts with a 7-5 record?
Houston has lost the last game and is a team with low morale, because the losses always cost in emotional terms, but can still mathematically reach the last spot of the playoffs, the problem is going to do 3 road games and two of them quite complicated, against Jaguars and Dolphins. Knowing that they play much better away from home, were my first choice, but after reviewing the other factors, I think it is wiser to stay out, because these Texans in the moment of truth have failed...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons: Without QB Matt Ryan, the Falcons had a FG advantage in the opening lines, courtesy of the oddsmakers. The Eagles on the road have acted with a bit lower than expected and on the last 4 games only managed to win 2 of them ... The prioblem is that the Falcons are not is good shape either and perhaps this is a good match for an Under, because both teams in the rushing game will have their best players sitting out on the sidelines. However, one never knows how the Falcons passing game will really work on this game, so I'd rather stay out of this game.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals: I will not play the Lions with Stafford having that arm injury not fully recovered. Going against Detroit -13 against a team as good on the offense like the Bengals are is always a snack, the problem is that these Bengals only played their best game against the best teams on the league.
Against the Bears, who are in the same division of the Lions, Cincy won big, but on the last game against the Browns, division rivals, they played just the minimum required to win the game and that has been almost the norm when the Bengals face lowly teams. In theory, Lions +13 would be a good pick, but the circumstances of the injury on the arm of Stafford, force me to leave this game aside.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers: it's curious to see Bucs +6 going to Bucs +4, but that is explained because if I'm not wrong, Panthers' QB will be out for this game game and therefore, it is complicated to have a good read on the Panthers. Tampa Bay is a very weak team and perhaps, the best pick for this game is the Under 40. Were not the fact that I do not know very well these two teams and that I've already too many plays for this week and maybe I could take that risk ... The problem is that Tampa Bay can score always a few points per game, ranging between 14 and 21 points, and sometimes games between low scoring teams can open up and we end up with an over... Many unknowns to take risks that I find unnecessary ...
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF)
QB Kurt Warner is an experienced quarterback and despite being questionable for tonight, I think he will be on the starting lineup. On the passing game, he has WR Larry Fitzgerald (75 receptions and 11 TD), Warner's "best friend" and WR Anquan Boldin (56 rec/2 TD), 2 good wide receivers that any defense in the NFL has to be very careful to not give them too much room. WR Steve Breaston was also used this season and he has some nice numbers, 43 receptions and 3 TD, so we can really say that Arizona's passing game is one of the best in the NFL.
Cardinals' rushing game is now improved, rookie RB Beanie Wells has already scored 4 TD and he is a nice addiction for the team, which has shown a very strong running game in their last games and are now more balanced offense. RB Tim Hightower has some health problems but he might seeing him too on this game, if not as a rusher, at least a tight-end, to give the Cards some options on the short passing game. Yet, the running game is the weak spot of the Cardinals and Minny D has the edge on this one.
Arizona's defense does better against the running game than against the passing game, yet this might not be enough when you face the best rusher of the NFL. However, Cards D is able to deliver a lot of pressure on the opposite side and their passing defense is not that bad either, but they have their moments, sometimes they play very good, sometimes they don't and at home, they usually do not play that well and against the Vikings that can be deadly.
Minnesota defense is a very good and aggressive unit, one of the mainstays of this team in the past, but their secondary has been untested on the last weeks and they faced good offensive teams like the Steelers, the Packers or even the Ravens, they suffered a lot of points. For those who want to go for the Over, this might be a good angle, but for me that line is a bit too high thanks to Arizona's inconsistency.
On the offense, they have QB Brett Favre, who has been very good this season, he has not taken many chances and he has suffered very few interceptions because on this season he has done a very good management on his passing calls and he has taken advantage of the powerful rushing game at his disposal. QB Favre improved the Vikings passing game and with the best rusher of the NFL, RB Adrian Peterson (a player that is practically impossible to stop and even when he is stopped, he has far better numbers than any good rusher in the NFL, which makes him a key player on the Vikes O), the Minny O is quite strong and deadly to their opponents' defenses.
On the passing game, WR Bernard Berrian (38 rec/4 TD) has not been used that much this season, unlike WR Percy Harvin (42 rec/5TD) or WR Sidney Rice (56 rec/4 TD), who account for almost a mile in the passing game. Yet, when we look at the numbers of Adrian Peterson, we see that this team is very well balanced in terms of scoring touchdowns by the ground or by the air.
Both defenses will have problems when facing the opponents' passing game, but when the ball is carried by a rusher, the edge goes for the Purps, on both sides of the game, offense and defense. Minnesota has been much more consistent this season, despite having faced lower opponents lately while Arizona had a much tougher opposition. For me, knowing how unreliable the Cards have been at home, I'll have to give the Vikes the edge and I expect them to win this game by at least 1 touchdown or more. No matter the end result, ladies and gents, please enjoy the game!!!
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF)
Since their Bye Week on Week 7, the Baltimore Ravens (6-5) have improved their game and are now in the run for a spot on the wild card race for the playoffs and aside of the Browns, they had faced very difficult teams like the Colts at home or the Bengals on the road. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers after their Bye Week on Week 5 only lost 2 games, at home against the Vikings and on the road, against the Bucs.
Baltimore offense has sophomore a good QB Joe Flacco leading the team on the offense and he usually bids his time inside the pocket to make the best calls. However, this Baltimore team lately has not scored too many points, which is a trend to take in account for those who might consider the Under 43. On the passing game, the Ravens have WR Derrick Mason has Flacco's main target and he his the best wide receiver of the team. The TE Todd Heap is also very used and after these two, we have also Mark Clayton and Kelley Washington who are seldom used. On the running game, Baltimore main rusher is RB Ray Rice, who also is used sometimes as a wide receiver, and RB Willis McGahee, both are good options for the Ravens ground offense and both have 6 TD scored each.
On the defense, Baltimore has improved a lot their passing defense, and that is a good thing for tonight. The Ravens' secondary is one of the best in the NFL and they should do again a nice job like they've done lately. Against the rush, Baltimore has done greatly and since the Packers play much better on the passing game than on the ground offense, we should not expect to see Green Bay doing much more on the ground.
Green Bay defense is also very aggressive, and they have done well against the rushing game and the passing game, but against good offensive teams, they've suffered a lot of points. The Ravens offense is not a very prolific one, but they have been able to do balanced offense and their passing defense has not been the best. The running defense has been quite better, however Baltimore has good options on their running game and the Packers D will have some problems today.
The Packers passing game has a good QB Aaron Rodgers in great shape and with good options for the Wide Receivers positions, WR Greg Jennings and WR Donald Driver, have been great lately and his Tight-Ends TE Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley aren't that bad either. They will face today a great defense tonight and their running game is solely based on Ryan Grant, who has nice numbers for this season, but he should not do greatly tonight.
Despite the good performance of the Green Bay passing game on their last games and they have the edge on the number of rest days, yet the Baltimore D is very seasoned and they always give their best and we count on them for a close win by at least on FG.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
NFL 2009, Week 14, 4 point spreads and 3 totals:
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 36.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: Green Bay Packers -3.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys: San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (SNF): Under 44 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek
Below is my Week 13 results recap:
90 - Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: Denver Broncos -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (13-44: WIN)
91 - Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Oakland Raiders +15 -110 (1.91) The Greek (24-27: WIN)
92 - Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-17: LOSS)
93 - New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins: New Orleans Saints -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (30-33 OT: LOSS)
94 - St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears -9 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-9: LOSS)
95 - New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: New England Patriots -3 -125 (1.80) Bet Jamaica (22-21: LOSS)
96 - San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns: San Diego Chargers -13.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (23-30: LOSS)
97 - Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF): Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker (30-17: LOSS)
98 - Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF): Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-14: LOSS)
SIDES: 2-7; (Week 13: -5.18 units);
NFL 2009 Season record: 46-51-1 (-9.17 units lost/97 units risked);
SIDES: 44-43 (-3.03 units won/87 units risked);
TOTALS 2-8 (-6.14 units lost/10 units risked).
Yesterday finished with a 4-2, 2-1 on pointspreads and 2-1 on totals.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
The Niners have a good defense and their offense is also quite good, but despite playing at home tonight, they've had consistently lose all their important games against stronger teams during the current season by a 6/7 pts margin.
I don't expect them to win tonight against an Arizona team that leads their division and that has managed to win their games on the road and the Cards are showing a nice improvement on their last games too.
I think that the Cardinals offense has an edge for this game and they have enough quality to win this game by at least by a touchdown.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek
First pick for NFL 2009, Week 15:
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
NFL 2009, Week 15, 5 spreads and 2 totals:
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Cleveland Browns ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens: Under 40 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
I might still have something for the SNF and the MNF...
Below is my Week 14 results recap:
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (30-10: LOSS)
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 36.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-26: WIN)
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (10-16: WIN)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: Green Bay Packers -3.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek (14-21: WIN)
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys: San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-20: WIN)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (SNF): Under 44 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (38-45: LOSS)
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek (24-9: LOSS)
SIDES: 2-2; TOTALS: 2-1 (Week 14: +0.6 units);
NFL 2009 Season record: 50-54-1 (-8.57 units lost/104 units risked);
SIDES: 46-45 (-3.25 units won/91 units risked);
TOTALS 4-9 (-5.32 units lost/13 units risked).
Posting Permissions
LinkBack URL
About LinkBacks
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks