Each Way Doubles

[watsonsbay]

Here's some thoughts i had on using each way doubles in horse racing.


Each Way Doubles

Quite simply, we use the vast amount of information available to us on a daily basis to identify races where a favourite is either not particularly fancied or is statistically very weak and therefore under-priced, and where the second or third favourite is fancied, being backed by connections and is statistically sound with conditions in its favour.
That advantage is leveraged by combining 2 such selections in an each way double.
Obviously we are dependant on finding 2 races in a day’s racing that fit our criteria so this strategy, like so many in betting, involves discipline and patience.

Each way betting is so often misunderstood that I would like to just run through how powerful a betting strategy this can be.

First a few questions for you.
In general, how do you feel about betting each way?
Do you see it as doubling your stake and therefore expensive?
How about backing horses at 3/1 each way? Or even 7/4??
Is this ringing alarm bells inside you?

Let’s take a race today as I write (27/02/0 – the 4.20 at Southwell.
A 3 mile Maiden Hurdle race with 14 runners.
Is that putting you off an each way bet already, 14 runners?
Well, let’s look at the betting.
The favourite, The Accordian Man, is 2/1 best price, followed by Seize at 9/4 best, April San at 3/1, Kingfisher Niamh at 11/1 and the rest of the field priced up at 40/1 or bigger.
Effectively the market is telling us that it’s really only a 4 horse race, but one where we’ll get paid each way on the first three, because that’s the rules for a 14 runner race.
Now let’s get into some hypothetical information that we’ve received which tells us that April San, trained by Ferdy Murphy, is the least fancied of his two runners and that this horse might not stay the extended 3 mile trip.
His other horse Seize is fancied and has been backed by the right people.
The Accordian Man is weak in the betting and has not run for 326 days.
Although the average punter might look at Seize’s profile and think ‘this horse is still a maiden after 14 starts, I’ll look elsewhere’ he actually represents a great each way bet because he’s the best rated horse in the race, he runs consistently well, and he’s statistically very highly likely to run in the first 3 and, of course, possibly win.

Now let’s take a quicker look at the first leg of our potential double, the 3.20 at Southwell which is a 9 runner Novices hurdle.
An odds on favourite at about 2/5 which is expected to run well but has a few question marks against it.
The second favourite is 3/1, fit and ready and quietly fancied by connections to overturn the favourite.
It’s then 10/1 the 3rd favourite and 40/1 and bigger the rest.
Ideal!
The 2nd favourite will be our selection.

Are you wondering if I’ve gone slightly mad?
We’re suggesting an each way double on horses priced at 3/1 and 9/4?
Well yes, and here’s why.
Both selected horses are statistically highly likely to be placed, they’re fit and fancied, and both races have favourites with sufficient question marks against them to suggest that they’re both under priced and vulnerable.

Are you ready to see the maths?

Let’s have a mythical £50 each way double at 3/1 and 9/4.
Worst case scenario is that one or both are unplaced. Unlikely, but possible.
Loss £100

Now, let’s say both get placed.
Are you thinking ‘Well ok, I won’t have lost too much’
Your £50 e/w double at 3/1 and 9/4 actually returns £116, a £16 profit or 16% on your outlay.
(In fact, two horses placed at only 2/1 will return you £98 of your £100 stake.)

Now, the best result – both horses win.
Your win double pays £650 and, of course, you get the £116 place double too.
A £766 return for £100 outlay, a profit of £666 with the massive insurance of a £116 return should you have 2 placed or 1 winner and 1 placed.

Of course that second option opens up a few other possibilities, as you may have spotted.
Say the first selection wins at 3/1 and so you have your win double running on (£200 at 9/4) and your place double too.
You now have the option of trading (i.e. laying) some of your win bet back and guaranteeing a nice profit although that would obviously reduce your profit should the second selection go on and win.
It’s up to you, but you do have the choice.

Now, these opportunities are not certain to crop up every day and we will only get involved when everything falls into place, the prices are right, and we can see an opportunity to profit.

Sometimes we might find 2 races where the favourites have question marks and both the second and third favourites are fancied.

In this case, and probably fairly rarely, we might back 2 horses in both races in 4 each way doubles.

Again, the downside is if we have one race with no horse placed in which case at £50 e/w stakes the loss would be £400. Unlikely!

The following table shows the returns using selections at 5/2 and 3/1 in one race and 3/1 and 4/1 in the other.




Race 1 Race 2

Price L,W,P Price L,W,P Price L,W,P Price L,W,P Returns
3/1 Place 4/1 Lost 3/1 Lost 5/2 Place £120
3/1 Place 4/1 Lost 3/1 Place 5/2 Lost £128
3/1 Lost 4/1 Place 3/1 Lost 5/2 Place £135
3/1 Lost 4/1 Place 3/1 Place 5/2 Lost £144
3/1 Place 4/1 Place 3/1 Lost 5/2 Place £255
3/1 Place 4/1 Place 3/1 Place 5/2 Lost £272
3/1 Place 4/1 Lost 3/1 Place 5/2 Place £248
3/1 Lost 4/1 Place 3/1 Place 5/2 Place £279
3/1 Place 4/1 Place 3/1 Place 5/2 Place £527
3/1 Win 4/1 Place 3/1 Place 5/2 Win £968
3/1 Place 4/1 Win 3/1 Place 5/2 Win £1138
3/1 Win 4/1 Place 3/1 Win 5/2 Place £1063
3/1 Place 4/1 Win 3/1 Win 5/2 Place £1264



The long and short of this is that if only the two worst priced horses place, then you get a return of £120.
2 placed in one race and one in the other returns a minimum £248.
All 4 placed returns £527
2 winners at worst prices and no other placed returns £820
2 best priced winners and both other selections placed returns £1527.

Although the returns might not look as impressive as the earlier example, you should remember that you have four chances of finding the two winners, not one, and you have the same four chances of finding placed horses, all of which could come in.

[PunterProfits]

will back you up on this one watsonsbay

most mug punters tend to consider only backing each way when odds are long.

there is often great value in a short odds each way bet.

find two in a day and an ew double can make a lot of sense.
even more so perhaps if you can trade out of the win side of the bet.

cheers
Mick