Grand National on Saturday

[TheJoker]

There are some absolute set in stone stats that we must take heed of and allow us to narrow down the Grand National field before we consider form and going preferences of the runners.

Just one winner of the Grand National has never won at 3 miles or more so every horse you consider must have won over 3 miles plus.

Weight is obviously a big factor and the most weight carried to victory was Red Rum carrying 11-6. The way the weights are this year there is a fair chance we could get an 11 stone winner so I am going to rule out anything above 11-2 as nothing in the last 20 years has managed that feat.

Horses don’t win the Grand National if they younger than 8 or older than 12 but most winners are 9,10 or 11. I will allow horses that are 8 to 12 but extra credit is given to the 9, 10 and 11 year olds.

Horses need to have had between 4-6 runs in the season if the stats are to be believed so lightly/heavily trained horses need to be ruled out.

Every winner has had a run within the last 50 days so the rusty horses are ruled out.

Although most horses are given a fairly light prep race before the big one they must at least run respectably in that so we can rule out anything that didn’t finish in the first seven on their latest run.

I have entered these stats into Grand National Form Guide which gives me the following horses:

Cloudy Lane
Comply Or Die
Snowy Morning
D’argent
L’ami
Kelami
Idle Talk

I think the winner will definitely come from that list.

Idle Talk’s win over 3m+ was in poor company and £17,000 is usually the cut off point for smallest chase win so we can rule that one out.

Let’s look at who is left

Cloudy Lane

Deserves to be favourite and is obviously well in at the weights having won twice since the weights came out. Stamina has to be taken on trust as he has failed both times he has run over marathon distances but there were excuses at Fairyhouse last season as he was considered over the top by then. Decent jumper and possible winner but 5/1 is extremely short and in my opinion he is unbackable because of that price.

Comply Or Die

Won by a wide margin over a trip within three furlongs of the Grand National trip so certainly has the stamina for this. He is a classy individual who has had problems (was pulled up in three of six starts) but he seems back to his best and because of those problems we probably still haven’t seen the best of him. Has only fallen once in his career but yet to face fences like this, he is a very likely winner if getting a clear round, looks highly promising. Only negative is poor record of horses in the National when wearing headgear.

Snowy Morning

Has won over 3m but doesn’t look like a great stayer and although possibly well handicapped he has disappointed on his most recent start when a beaten odds on favourite and probably likes the ground softer. Can’t have it and will be surprised if it places.

D’Argent

Has plenty of stamina and seems to go on any ground. He is a decent jumper but four of his five chase wins have come at Warwick so maybe he just prefers it there and doesn’t look fantastically handicapped. Another with the head gear on too.

L’Ami

Stayed on well recently at Cheltenham and completed the race last year but was well beaten. Carries less weight this time and will probably get round but doesn’t quite stay this trip. Will probably come about 7th or 8th.

Kelami

Another who ran in the race last year (pulled up) but still retains plenty of ability and a marathon trip on goodish ground would suit. Hard to win with but a decent bet to place at the price.

Grand National Bets

I think Comply or Die is going to take all the beating and the only negative is the wearing of blinkers. I will be having a decent sized bet on Comply or Die and also a place interest in Kelami.

Away from the stats I will also be backing Slim Pickings to place as he came third in the race last year and has been trained for this all season. Should be able to bag a place at ok place odds.