Matt Fargo's Free Pick
East Carolina vs. Central Florida, Take Central Florida Golden Knights

It’s pretty safe to say that East Carolina has thrown in the towel this season. The Pirates have lost 12 of their last 14 games including three straight by an average of 18 ppg. They had one win on the road the entire season which was a four-point victory over Wofford in their road opener and they have lost 11 straight away games since. The offense has not gotten out of the 60’s in 11 straight games and it is averaging only 55 ppg in its last five games.

Central Florida had a very respectable season, finishing one-game below .500 overall and 7-7 in CUSA. The Golden Knights ended the season winning three of their final four games so they come into the tournament with some good momentum. They were not very good on the road with a 3-7 record but one of those wins was at 19-8 Houston while one of the losses was a two-point setback at Kentucky. This is the best three-point shooting teams in the conference.

The Golden Knights are hitting 36.3 percent from behind the arc which leads CUSA. They are hitting an even more impressive 40.6 percent from long range over their last five games and this is the complete opposite of the Pirates. East Carolina is dead last in the conference in three-point shooting, barely topping 30 percent. It is making only 28.7 percent of its long range attempts on the road and just 25.7 percent over its last five games.

The Pirates are the only team in the conference to have a shooting percentage below 40 percent. They are only one percent ahead of Houston in free throw shooting so East Carolina is ever so close to holding the shooting trifecta but at the wrong end. Central Florida has the edge in offensive shooting, defensive shooting, rebounding, free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. That alone punches the ticket to the next round plus East Carolina just wants it to be over. Play Central Florida Golden Knights One Unit


Big Al McMordie's Free Pick
Oregon State vs. Arizona State, Take Arizona State Sun Devils

At 9 pm, our complimentary selection is on team 546, Arizona State minus the points over Oregon State in the opening round of the Pac-10 Tournament, held at the Staples Center in downtown Los Angeles. The 8th-seeded Sun Devils have been installed as a 2-point favorite over the 9th-seeded Beavers, and have already defeated Oregon State twice this year. Back on January 14, in Corvallis, Arizona State won 65-63 in overtime, as 4.5-point underdogs. And then on February 9, the Sun Devils won at home 76-59, as 5-point favorites. Both teams come into this game off wins: ASU defeated Washington State 68-55, while Oregon State upset its rival, Oregon, 65-62 as 3.5-point home dogs. We're going to play on Arizona State in this ball game, as underdogs of 7 points or less are poor bets in Conference Tournament games, if they won SU as a home dog in their previous game, and have a win percentage of .290 or better. These teams cover just 29% of the time, including 20% ATS vs. a foe off a win. Good luck, as always...


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