Lay betting - Pro's and con's

[vin123]

hi fellas,

I'm quite new to this game and have been facinated over recent weeks with the concept of lay betting. I want to know of any experiences (good or bad) that anyone has had with regards to this and whether it's something worth considering as all I ever see on the net are amazing returns posted on sites that don't proof their selections. Any information welcome - Vin

[jjh]

hi fellas,

I'm quite new to this game and have been facinated over recent weeks with the concept of lay betting. I want to know of any experiences (good or bad) that anyone has had with regards to this and whether it's something worth considering as all I ever see on the net are amazing returns posted on sites that don't proof their selections. Any information welcome - Vin

First thing's first, those sites that put up their results but don't show the proof are bullshit. I remember one site that claimed great returns and I sent an email asking what selections they did- I got no reply so that told me they were posting false or unreliable results- they will put up one week's results but leave out the loss returned from laying the selections from the other 3 weeks in the month and so on...

The thing is with laying is that it sounds easy, but it ain't. It sounds like all you have to do is pick a loser, which many people often do, but it is not that simple. For example, look at favourites, backing all favourites would return a loss and laying all favs would too- with the 5% commision taken into account. Finding false favs is one way to do it, but can be a hard task. The advice I would give in finding lays would be as follows:

1. Find a race where the favourite or fancied horse seems no better than the opposition. If you can find another 2 horses that you would consider backing in the race, then maybe you have found a value 'loser'!

2. Look for poor jockeys that fail to do well on a fancied horse- the stats show that many jockeys just cannot win a race at certain courses or at certain prices. These would be good lays.

3. Avoid laying huge price horses- a 50/1 horse with the bookies might be only layable at 200/1 on the exchanges, this could ruin your bank if it came in.

I'm not really a laying person myself, but that is the initial advice I would give to you. Take tomorrow's race card and say pick out 5 horses no higher than 10/1 that you think have no chance in hell. I've been looking at doing it for a while with small stakes to see how I get on but be careful- because you only need to find one winner by accident and you are back to square one.

Laying is supposed to be letting you be the bookmaker, but single bets are not where the bookmakers make their money, it is multiple bets by stupid punters- bets you cannot lay at the moment...

I'll gladly post more advice if you want to carry on replying to this thread- I think this section needs more life in it to be honest!

[jjh]

And to answer your question about experiences- I remember the first horse I laid was a 10/1 runner- had been out of luck backing horses on the AW as my system only worked well on the turf. Guess what, I had picked my first winner of the AW season, shame I had laid it!

That reminds me, the AW season offers loads of great lays on favs. Punters will be backing short priced favs that ran well on the turf but may not have ran on the sand yet- you'll see plenty of 2/1, 3/1 runners finishng way behind in the field- the AW season, mostly November through December does offer some great lays...

I personally prefer to take advantage of this now and back certain jockeys on the AW as some cope better than others during the winter.

hope all this helps VIN123

[jglenny]

What you need is to be friends with a jockey, get him to lose on purpose while you lay any bet on him.

Easy!!!

[jjh]

Odds on shot Papal Bull today at the 2:10 Leicester looks a good lay today. Sure Fallon is on board and Michael Stoute has a good strike rate at this course, but Papal Bull is moving up in class- which in this race, horses moving up in class has a strike rate of 7 out of 233 runs (3%!). The only problem is that there is very little to oppose this horse, but I'd say with the size of the field, Papal Bull is a good lay.

[John Holmes' Stunt C**K]

Good call with Papal bull JJH

The main thing about laying is that you need a big starting balance. One thing you have to remember about Betfair / Betdaq, is that the majority of users re: horse racing are professional punters.

I've only ever laid won horse in my life (got some info saying that this horse had been standing in a field eating grass for the past week ) went off at 1.49, so i was effectively backing a 2-1 shot. It lost by 20 odd lengths on the AW btw.

My main advice would be to follow the market (esp. the low grade races). Anyone who says racing is not bent is a liar. Big lays are usually made at the last minute before the off, so watch carefully

[jjh]

Good call with Papal bull JJH

The main thing about laying is that you need a big starting balance. One thing you have to remember about Betfair / Betdaq, is that the majority of users re: horse racing are professional punters.

I've only ever laid won horse in my life (got some info saying that this horse had been standing in a field eating grass for the past week ) went off at 1.49, so i was effectively backing a 2-1 shot. It lost by 20 odd lengths on the AW btw.

My main advice would be to follow the market (esp. the low grade races). Anyone who says racing is not bent is a liar. Big lays are usually made at the last minute before the off, so watch carefully

Yeah, that was a poor call on Papal Bull, but I ain't a laying man myself! Although I think Goerge Washington is a good lay today at just under 2/1 currently.

That is a good point about watching the market, as a lot of activity occurs during the final stages of betting just before the off with a lot of money going down- forcing prices up or down accordingly.

Although I wouldn't agree the 'majority' of people on betfair are pro punters, only a small amount of betfair punters could actually be considered proffesional gamblers- say earning £15,000+ per year.

[manchestermurph@fsmail.ne]

First thing's first, those sites that put up their results but don't show the proof are bullshit. I remember one site that claimed great returns and I sent an email asking what selections they did- I got no reply so that told me they were posting false or unreliable results- they will put up one week's results but leave out the loss returned from laying the selections from the other 3 weeks in the month and so on...

The thing is with laying is that it sounds easy, but it ain't. It sounds like all you have to do is pick a loser, which many people often do, but it is not that simple. For example, look at favourites, backing all favourites would return a loss and laying all favs would too- with the 5% commision taken into account. Finding false favs is one way to do it, but can be a hard task. The advice I would give in finding lays would be as follows:

1. Find a race where the favourite or fancied horse seems no better than the opposition. If you can find another 2 horses that you would consider backing in the race, then maybe you have found a value 'loser'!

2. Look for poor jockeys that fail to do well on a fancied horse- the stats show that many jockeys just cannot win a race at certain courses or at certain prices. These would be good lays.

3. Avoid laying huge price horses- a 50/1 horse with the bookies might be only layable at 200/1 on the exchanges, this could ruin your bank if it came in.

I'm not really a laying person myself, but that is the initial advice I would give to you. Take tomorrow's race card and say pick out 5 horses no higher than 10/1 that you think have no chance in hell. I've been looking at doing it for a while with small stakes to see how I get on but be careful- because you only need to find one winner by accident and you are back to square one.

Laying is supposed to be letting you be the bookmaker, but single bets are not where the bookmakers make their money, it is multiple bets by stupid punters- bets you cannot lay at the moment...

I'll gladly post more advice if you want to carry on replying to this thread- I think this section needs more life in it to be honest!

plus if did get good at it you would have the racing board on your back thinking your fixing stay well clear

[Acarr]

I've just started ( this week ) lay to lose after seeing last years results (2005 ).

I never backed horses, unlike my dad, so really don't know about form etc.

But I joined a lottery syndicate which also has horse/greyhound/football and Lay to Lose tipping service.

I pay £60 per month to get the daily tips.

After 3 month, I've whittled it down to small bets ( £5-£10 ) on football, horse place and wins, but I've backed off the greyhounds, not keen on that.

But Lay to Lose, looks very good.

Last years results I can confirm from October when I first joined.

Starting the with £1000 pot, they closed with the pot standing at £28,000.

Very sensible betting and the tips seem good. Today, they would not give any tips as the day was too competitive. So def not mug punting.

Structured betting to minimise losses as well.

I think you have to have nerves of steel though, and be prepared to get through the losses.

Example:- At one point, the pot was almost £35,000 and three losses in a row wiped out £12,000.

But the tips recovered and went up, then losses knocked it down.

But still made it £28,000 by end of year. I wouldn't mind topping my bank up with that much so.

I've chucked a grand into Betfair and since Monday I've had 3 bets at £100 a shot.

2 lost ( Mount Clerigo and Tarlac ) so thats £200 up.

Critic let me down at Wolverhampton on Monday by winning LOL.

Because of the odds, My £100 bet, only cost me £78.94, so happy.

Of course if all three had lost I could of been out of pocket quite a bit.

But like I said, nerves of steel help. But going on the proof from last year I think the tips are quite sensible.

No bets on odds of 3.5 or over to be safe.

But £121 profit in two days ain't bad for a novice and I suppose if the pot gets past £2000 I can draw out my original deposit of £1000 and be safe.

[John Holmes' Stunt C**K]

Out of interest Acarr, are these lay "tips" given by the website (ie, personal opinions), or are they tips being based on odds that are shorter than they should be (ie, you are looking for value bets)?