With the advent of note exchangers etc and rumours of 'fake' backing, do coins going over the back actually mean anything?
...backing can mean something. AFAIK red gaming are the only manufacturers that utilise fake backing (twin hoppers?). The point is that while before certain machines in the past were essentially only worth punting when full, they may now be streak happy without coins dropping. This doesn't stop the fact that, barring refils and fake drops (which in known locations should be identifiable), a backing machine is only going to be as ready to pay out or more ready to pay (if notes have been used) than before. You just have to be able to read the machines in order to tell if a non-dropping machine is happy.
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