In my opinion none of the setups are guaranteed as i have had all drop down at some stage.
Try JPs lined up three below win line (i think its three), you will have yellow bar, green bar, yellow bar, on the winline. Usually goes up.
As a general rule, five pound does not often go up and neither does six, eights are 50/50 but as i say they can all go up and all go down.
Regards



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