what are the odds?

[swinebag22]

2 consecutive hands from the €3K deepstack tonight.

what are the chances of this...or is it not really that rare??

***** Hand 1664424916 *****
25.00/50.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - 28 June 2009 22:05:54
DEEPSTACK €3,000 GTD (Real/Tournament)
Seat 1: alexshil_3 (15881.00)
Seat 2: lipak (3665.00)
Seat 7: BobbyS22 (5669.00)
Seat 3: ridhikk (5690.00)
Seat 4: Iknow_you_ (5005.00)
Seat 5: Alfar (12250.00)
Seat 6: foot@mouth (4715.00)
Seat 8: tobar73 (14945.00)
Seat 9: AndyAwk1 (7051.00)
Seat 10: 111satan11 (5265.00)
lipak post SB 25.00
ridhikk post BB 50.00
** Deal **
alexshil_3 [N/A, N/A]
lipak [N/A, N/A]
BobbyS22 [3c, 3h]
ridhikk [N/A, N/A]
Iknow_you_ [N/A, N/A]
Alfar [N/A, N/A]
foot@mouth [N/A, N/A]
tobar73 [N/A, N/A]
AndyAwk1 [N/A, N/A]
111satan11 [N/A, N/A]
*** Bet Round 1 ***
Iknow_you_ Fold
Alfar Fold
foot@mouth Fold
BobbyS22 Raise to 150.00
tobar73 Fold
AndyAwk1 Fold
111satan11 Call 150.00
alexshil_3 Fold
lipak Fold
ridhikk Fold
*** Flop(Board): *** : [10c, 6s, 3d]
*** Bet Round 2 ***
BobbyS22 Bet 250.00
111satan11 Raise to 700.00
BobbyS22 All-in 5519.00
111satan11 Fold
*** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 1775.00
alexshil_3 Fold Win: 0.00
lipak Fold Win: 0.00
BobbyS22 By default Win: 1775.00

***** Hand 1664429413 *****
50.00/100.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - 28 June 2009 22:08:30
DEEPSTACK €3,000 GTD (Real/Tournament)
Seat 1: alexshil_3 (15881.00)
Seat 2: lipak (3640.00)
Seat 3: ridhikk (5640.00)
Seat 7: BobbyS22 (6594.00)
Seat 4: Iknow_you_ (5005.00)
Seat 5: Alfar (12250.00)
Seat 6: foot@mouth (4715.00)
Seat 8: tobar73 (14945.00)
Seat 9: AndyAwk1 (7051.00)
Seat 10: 111satan11 (4415.00)
ridhikk post SB 50.00
Iknow_you_ post BB 100.00
** Deal **
alexshil_3 [N/A, N/A]
lipak [N/A, N/A]
ridhikk [N/A, N/A]
BobbyS22 [3s, 3h]
Iknow_you_ [N/A, N/A]
Alfar [N/A, N/A]
foot@mouth [N/A, N/A]
tobar73 [N/A, N/A]
AndyAwk1 [N/A, N/A]
111satan11 [N/A, N/A]
*** Bet Round 1 ***
Alfar Call 100.00
foot@mouth Fold
BobbyS22 Call 100.00
tobar73 Fold
AndyAwk1 Fold
111satan11 Call 100.00
alexshil_3 Call 100.00
lipak Fold
ridhikk Fold
Iknow_you_ Check
*** Flop(Board): *** : [Ks, 4h, 3c]
*** Bet Round 2 ***
Iknow_you_ Check
Alfar Check
BobbyS22 Bet 400.00
111satan11 Call 400.00
alexshil_3 Fold
Iknow_you_ Fold
Alfar Fold
*** Turn(Board): *** : [Ks, 4h, 3c, 10d]
*** Bet Round 3 ***
BobbyS22 Bet 1100.00
111satan11 Fold
*** Showdown *** : Rake: 0.00 Total Pot: 1350.00
alexshil_3 Fold Win: 0.00
lipak Fold Win: 0.00
ridhikk Fold Win: 0.00
BobbyS22 By default Win: 1350.00

[Raiser]

Same flop would have been awesome

[Gorvacofin]

I think it's about 40,000 to 1.

[lev1athan]

I think the odds of being dealt a specific PP and then hitting trips are about 1800 to 1. So it depends where you're "starting from", eg. before the first hand is dealt, before the first flop etc.
Gorva, how did you get 40,000?

[NISHIKORI]

odds of being dealt a pair: 3/51 = 16/1 or 1 in 17 A
odds of floping a set approx:15/2 or 1 in 8.5 B
odds of A and B: 1/(17x8.5) = 143.5/1 or 1 in 144.5
odds of A and B in consecutive hands= 144.5x144.5 = approx 20900/1 (Think this is right)

[NISHIKORI]

-i think odds of flopping a set with the SAME pair in consecutive hands= 144.5x144.5x13= approx 270,000/1
-odds of flopping a set with pocket exactly pocket 3s in consecutive hands= 1/ (1/221 (odds of being dealt 33) x 8.5 = 1878.5. So for twice in a row is: APPROX 3.5M/1 (1878.5 squared)

[tfeilding]

odds of being dealt a pair: 3/51 = 16/1 or 1 in 17 A
odds of floping a set approx:15/2 or 1 in 8.5 B
odds of A and B: 1/(17x8.5) = 143.5/1 or 1 in 144.5
odds of A and B in consecutive hands= 144.5x144.5 = approx 20900/1 (Think this is right)

I think they are the odds of two consecutive sets rather than two identical consecutive sets.

[TylerStroud]

I think they are the odds of two consecutive sets rather than two identical consecutive sets.

so multiply it by another 4/52. Four 3's in the deck, then Three 3's in the deck to hit the PP preflop. Then the rest is standard.


Someone work it out i cba. But thats whats missing.

[lev1athan]

-i think odds of flopping a set with the SAME pair in consecutive hands= 144.5x144.5x13= approx 270,000/1
-odds of flopping a set with pocket exactly pocket 3s in consecutive hands= 1/ (1/221 (odds of being dealt 33) x 8.5 = 1878.5. So for twice in a row is: APPROX 3.5M/1 (1878.5 squared)

Yeah this is where I got to. This assumes we're starting "from nothing", which is a bit pointless seeing as there's nothing that exciting about getting pocket 3's in the first place.

[Steve A]

you're all wrong....."it's a million to one shot...........but it might just happen!"