satellite hand i'd like opinions on

[DonkBox]

This is from a $100 satellite to a $1k WSOP qualifier on Full Tilt, i'm not intending to play the $1k event, just playing this for $t. There are a number of these running on a Thursday, we've selected this particular satellite due to the fact that about 1/3rd of the field has qualified through a $14 feeder.

Payout Info: 8 seats worth $1k each, 9th gets $260, 10th $156

We're currenntly 6/11 but essentially tied for 10th with three other players, with only one real shortstack (he acutally goes out on the other table as this hand plays out and is one of the reasons i time banked) and this leaves us 6/10. This is a turbo where blinds go up every five minutes and they'll rise to 1500/3000 in four minutes time, with one more elimination we'll go to a final table of nine.

Reads on Berkanator - very few, he has the ironman chip which says nothing about his playing style but it means he is obv somewhat of a regular player, IIRC he has given us one walk previously but back when blinds were 400/800 ish. Despite his range being very wide here (i'd probs be shoving atc if positions were reversed) and the fact that we're not in a spot where we can fold to a seat yet i think this is quite close. We shoved the previous hand UTG and got it through and the 'big stack' to our immed left is tight, french and playing well above their abi. Bug Huni who is currently BB when we are btn is on the loose side from what i've seen.

What this bolis down to is:

Call and win - we win seat 100% of the time
Call and lose - we win $156 100% of the time (we'll have <1000 chips left)
Fold - we win seat ??% of the time.

Anyone know how to work out what ??% needs to be to make this a fold if we suspect he's shoving damn near atc? I'm 72% against ATC and 65% against a range incl all pairs/broadways/hands with 1 over card

Anyway call or pass?

Seat 2: shomyshow (16,055)
Seat 4: Big Huni (13,051)
Seat 5: DEELEE7 (16,810)
Seat 7: berkenator (11,880)
Seat 9: dino1980 (12,380)
shomyshow antes 300
Big Huni antes 300
DEELEE7 antes 300
berkenator antes 300
dino1980 antes 300
berkenator posts the small blind of 1,200
dino1980 posts the big blind of 2,400
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dino1980 9c 9d
shomyshow folds
Big Huni folds
DEELEE7 has 15 seconds left to act
DEELEE7 folds
berkenator raises to 11,580, and is all in
dino1980 has 15 seconds left to act
dino1980 has requested TIME

[Aidan77]

We cant fold to a seat so meh i call. He must be shoving 100% here. I actually think this is quite a good spot to get it in as we're gonna have to gamble. If we believe we can steal at will from the nit to our immed left then its pretty god damn close though. No im sticking to calling.

[DaMatrix]

Fold - we win seat ??&#37; of the time.

Anyone know how to work out what ??% needs to be to make this a fold if we suspect he's shoving damn near atc? I'm 72% against ATC and 65% against a range incl all pairs/broadways/hands with 1 over card

Roughly, I calculate if we fold and finish 9th/10th with same frequency and if we call and lose we finish 10th that:

72% => ??% > 70.2% to fold.
65% => ??% > 62.7% to fold.

I'd instacall.

[Steve A]

I can't lay this down here - I'm with Matrix on the instacall, but I'm sweating.

[PokerWoody]

I'd call because 99 is a very good hand and the SB shoved when we were on the bubble.

[swinebag22]

I probably should call here but in the past I'd have passed this. you might fold into a seat but as a joint short stack you are pretty likely (i suppose you are asking how likely) going to need to win a hand at some stage and this seems a pretty decent spot.

I dont think folding is that bad, specially if you think you can get most shoves through in the next orbit.

Sorry for my penneth worth here. I specialise in bubbling satellites

I have a few extra questions

Do we pass if there are 9 big prizes instead of 8?
Does the fact that you have your buyin back influence the decision here?

[waltypies]

I
Do we pass if there are 9 big prizes instead of 8?
Does the fact that you have your buyin back influence the decision here?

I think thats the key for me.

If i did not get the buy in back i am most likely folding here and then shoving when i get the chance.

However due to the fact that i am now freerolling fuck it i am calling.

[cayton]

I would think were ahead here . But iam not a 9s lover. If you def want a seat i would fold, Or if as walty said freeroll f/kit then shove away

[lev1athan]

Do we pass if there are 9 big prizes instead of 8?
Does the fact that you have your buyin back influence the decision here?

I reckon it might be a "yes" to Q1; as it is I agree with everyone in that we're too marginal stack-wise to give this up.
As for Q2, we shouldn't let this influence us one bit obviously, whether or not we do in reality.

[jingjangjong]

im with walty on this one. most of time the all in here is bollox bluff u know this as u would prob make same move yourself with any 2. ive got gaurentee of buy in back. insta call