Anyone calling here?

[Bazzzzza]

Apolagies for the piss poor grammar in advance......

Playing 2/4,i have a monster stack,so does 1 other player at the table.
I get dealt kk,raise,get 4 caller's (respect there) flop comes 993...i lead out,get a caller,and the button(who is the other monster stack) raises,i decide to flat call,other player folds.
Turn comes another 9,i check,other monster stack bets nearly the pot(this confuses me) i decide to flat call again,river was a blank....i check,monster stack shuvs! there's over 3k in the pot....does anyone call here? the turn play is whats playing on my mind,why bet so heavilly if you have made quads?i folded the hand by the way.....

[Bazzzzza]

Would you be calling dan?
if id have had the quads,id have played it exactly the same way as he did....maybe not as strong on the turn,thats the only part playing on my mind...

[SaintLucas]

Is this live or online?
Raise pre, how much? i cant get to grips with this, not enough info, whats his VP$?
Thats seems like one fcuked up hand, probably a good fold.

[rfph1]

I would call (if this were a lower stake game) as I would be putting him on a FH.

[SaintLucas]

I would call (if this were a lower stake game) as I would be putting him on a FH.

I would snap call if it were lower stakes, but its not, its for 3k, now you have a shit load to consider.
I think you gotta be data minin this dude and have some major info on him to call here.

[SaintLucas]

Is this a level?
Apologies is easy to spell.

[Dice Man]

Would you be calling dan?
if id have had the quads,id have played it exactly the same way as he did....maybe not as strong on the turn,thats the only part playing on my mind...

Yeah but he probably plays several hands that you beat in this way as well. I'd put the guy on 88-AA. I'm 70% sure I have the best hand here. You don't say exactly how big his push is compared to the size of the pot but I probably call.

I'd be interested in your (and Scrote's) analysis of this hand when it comes to Bayes' Theorem, which is:

Where P is "probability of",

P(A given B) = P(B given A) x P(A) / P(B)

Let A be the proposition "he has you beat", i.e. AA or 9x
Let B be the proposition "he plays the way he does".

I would say it goes like this:

0.3 = 0.9 x 0.1 / 0.3

i.e. I think the way he plays this only makes it about 3x as likely that he has AA or 9x (forget KK) as you believed likely pre-flop (which I thought was about 10% of his range). And I say that if he does have AA or 9x he plays it this way 90% of the time.

[cayton]

Take the stake level out of the eq, How much (% wise) have u put into the pot? How much more is it to call? Was it a pot limit with getting 4 callers? or was it a small pre bet? What ever he bet he belives he has u beat ( not a bluff ) Its not a nine because what would he have had as a kicker to call the pre flop; ace ( very weak four handed ) Prob aces.
iam just glad it wasnt me who was playing i would have called and took the beating

[Aidan77]

Why has no one said fold flop? He raised after a bet and a call. We're beat. You dont give any stats or reads. Knowing whether he's passive PF is pretty important here lol, ie. have we seen him flat big pairs...If we havent then its a fold on the flop yo. You also dont state your PF raise size or image. Its difficult to comment usefully without this info.

[Bazzzzza]

Ok,i apologise(thx saint for lack of info: i raise 4 x bb pre,always(when opening).It was about 950 more for me to call his shuv on the river.His range is massive here,with position and 3 other caller's in the hand. I dont use any kind of poker tracker,or stats,(old school) i cant get on with any of it,and seem to do ok without it all.
So what are we saying?we fold here?
Paddy says he calls,drago says he fold's...it really is a tough 1 isnt it?,been playing on my mind a few days now,lol...but my gut(and its a fair size gut atm) says he had the goods