sat bubble spot

[Rich Ghost]

Interesting spot last night in the 250k sat.

21 ppl left, 20 get seats/€320.

blinds 750/1500/150

Every one timebanking as usual im in 19th position with 6000 ish.

Dude in 21st has 3000 ish and keeps sitting out and then coming back on other table.

20th has 5000 ish on the 3rd table.

Im on the button with QQ. bb has 10000.

I bank as usual (but whilst really pondering this) then decide to push on the basis that if i get through i am virtually gtd my seat. The table has been uber uber tight so im pretty sure im getting folds unless i walk into a monster.

If i fold here I and 3000 boy doubles I am going to be in trouble when the blinds come round.

Anyway bb says "I call" while the sb banks. I then say "AA" and bb says "shit KK here". I was discussing this at the time with walty and i couldnt bare to look.

Now what happened was he then said "really?". I had covered the table with another window and therefore didnt reply. I really think he might have passed if i had carried on saying "yes AA etc, i will show" etc.

anyway he calls and im out. My bad on not looking at the screen and using the chatbox to get him to fold.

But i really wanna know if this was a pass pf?

Having had lots of time to think about it, I think it was a pass and hope that 3000 boy/5000 boy gets KO'd.

Donkbox youre a sat machine, whats your line here?

[DonkBox]

Firstly if i'm the big blind here i'm not calling with AA, let alone KK because my seat is a lock, but losing the pot puts me in trouble so theoretically you can shove QQ just fine and as you say if you get the blinds and antes your seat is a lock, so the question is, is your seat a lock if you fold the QQ?

When do the blinds go up again and where in relation to the blinds is the 3k stack? Because if the blinds will have gone up again before he hits the big blind then you can force him all-in and as it stands he's virtually all-in even if the blinds don't go up before they hit him. Your hope is that some of the bigger stacks know sat strat and when he is forced all-in they gang up, or if he shoves, say UTG for 2bbs then the BB at least looks him up.

In short this is really close, i'd love to think i can just muck this 100% of the time but if i'm feeling at all tilty or having a bad day I probably ship it!

[Rich Ghost]

Yeah i hear you regarding his call. With his stack i am folding everything.

I believe the blinds had just changed to 750/1500 (15 minute levels)

Im pretty sure 3000 boy had just been through the blinds and this helped sway me to pushing(walty can u remember?). If i had had slightly more or slightly less chips or if shortie was about to face the blinds the decision would have been easier.

I still cannot decide if it was right or wrong lol. Diceman must know the %. 95% its a tie (neither right nor wrong). 3% wrong, 2 % right. Yeah that sounds about right.

But what i do regret is hiding the screen. I think the promise of a show might just have got him to bin it. For him not to insta call shows he was at least thinking about the situation. I still agree that his call is very dangerous.

I might flip a coin next time.

[Dice Man]

I don't get how he can fold AA at all, but then I don't play satellites and probably wouldn't be very good at them. With AA he has to be around 80% against your range. If he wins his seat is guaranteed, and if he loses there's still a guy on the other table poorer than him with the BB closer to him.

I also like the push with the QQ and possibly a few other hands. We have to take into account here that if play is so tight, the two guys poorer than you could easily get continued walks. If people are prepared to lay down hands like QQ then they easily could.

[Rich Ghost]

His seat is already guaranteed (or as damn near to it) and can fold into the money all day long. Call and lose and suddenly hes in a spot that he doesnt need to be in.

If he had 20000 then yeah, maybe call (with AA not KK) and get the game over with, lose and still fold into a seat. Hes risking his seat for the sake of others here really.

Pushing into a 10k stack is perfect for reasons mentioned earlier.

Play was tight on my table, i cant vouch for other tables as i had only recently opened them up. I had pushed a few times on the button to keep myself afloat (ish) and had folds every time. But that was when there were 25 ppl left and previous.

Satelite bubbles often have many ppl bleeding down to 2 bbs, 1 bb or even less than a bb.

[waltypies]

As i remember blinds were 750/1500 with a 150 ante.

FZ who was mega short (3k) had about 5 hands to go till he hit the BB.

IMO i dont think the seat was locked up as yet and i am still thinking about the shove. However if you had said AA one more time i am thinking he was folding KK

[Aidan77]

I kinda feel this is a fold if you're on the button and the other two short stacks are about to be blinded out, but damn at the table im probably shipping this. On tilt, insta shove. Lols at the interplay, i dont get how he called with KK, when he only has 10K while you have 6 and he only has 7 BB's... or am i being retarded?

[cayton]

hey rich i think you made the right move with the wrong result
the other guy wrong move right result dont beat yourself up over it
ask yourself next time would i do the same, most of these replys are unsure so that says no right or wrong call

[lev1athan]

Without doing the maths, in that spot any biggish stack is guaranteed at least 95% tournament equity, which (obv) no hand can match pf, meaning the BB should fold anything. However is the BB actually a big stack with his 10k? From what you've said I guess he's almost certainly "big enough" in comparison to the rest of the field to make his call incorrect. 10k calling off against your 6k with a 5k and 3k still in does smell of wrongness.
As for your shove; I'd shove 100% there no problem, as you will very rarely get called and all it takes is for 3000 boy to double up and you're back in the shit (far from impossible if he's just been through the blinds as he's in late pos and less susceptible to being ganged-up on like Donkbox mentions).