PokerEV 'all in luck'

[jjh]

Early morning post here Morning everyone...this is about how I think PokerEV doesn't tell usa anything worthwhile.

Right, I've often played a session and looked at pokerEV to see how I was 'running'.

All in luck is supposed to reflect what your all in returns should be if you ran to expected, it plots your A/E basically.

Sometimes after a bad session and a few bad beats I'll look and it has me running to expected sometimes etter and sometimes worse, but I never feel that that relfected the session I just played...

So I've just played a small session of PLO$10 at full tilt...

Played 802 hands and my all in hands (SO ONLY LOOKING AT HANDS THAT WENT ALL IN BEFORE THE RIVER) shows up as returns=

actual= +$18.45

expected= +$18.25.

So according to my poker EV stats, I was running almost exactly as expected. Now with such a small sample of all in before the river hands I have manually gone through my poker tracker stats to look at the hands that got to showdown but were all in before the river.

There were 16 in total, and I was ahead 15 out of the 16- so I'm questioning the A/E graph already- here are the %'s-

Hands I lost- lost 7 all ins-

My percentage to win pot at time of all in =

51%, 65%, 81%, 75%, 75%, 8% (set over set ), 68%

Hands I won- won 9 all ins before river,

%=

61%, 74%, 64%, 77%, 75%, 82%, 69%, 71%, 78%…

So out of 16 all ins, I was coin flipping once, huge underdog once and pretty strong favourite in the rest (60%+ 4 times, 70%+ 7 times and 80%+ two times)

I understand that I am not expecting to win every all in when 70% favourite, but from that sample, surely my pokerEV is wrong in havong me running exactly to expected from the stats I have manually gathered?

Of course there is the rake to figure in but I am thouroughly confused as to how pokerEV comes to these calculations

[Dice Man]

This is because your expected win rate as calculated by pokerEV takes account of the size of the pots involved. For example, if the hand where you lost set over set was $50, and all of the other pots were on average $20 each, then it follows that you might lose more than you thought you would if you only took account of winning and losing 60%ers and so on.

[lucky_scrote]

If you get it all in with Aces vs Kings you are an 80% favourite.

Say you get it in with aces vs kings 5 times in a row and win you will be running above expectation as you should only win 4 on average.

Also what dice man said, the pot sizes are taken into account.

[jjh]

I understand that AA is 'expected' to lose to KK overtime but each all in pot was the same pot size because I was playing with a 50BB stack only just to get a more accurate sample, so each all in was 100BB.

I just don't see how you can be such a strong favourite 14/16 times and lose 7 of those and have pokerEV say I was running to expected going by those % I gave...??? Each all in was in the range of $9-11 for total pot size.