Being blinded out versus calling a raise

[waltypies]

[RevStu]

I can not tell you why you are wrong because I am pompous and it is the law.

fwiw 'reasoning' is the wrong word. Your tripe is as far from reasoning as is possible.

This:

Realistically, the only way you're going to win with 94o is if you make everyone fold, since it's one of the shittest hands possible. So you'll get the blinds, lifting you from 6bb to 7.5bb, and achieving nothing more than buying yourself a free orbit to hopefully get better cards. BUT you risk being called by any reasonably good sb or bb hand and almost certainly losing - remember, you're playing short stacks and big stacks, no medium ones, so either a short stack will call you with any half-decent hand out of desperation, or a big stack will call you for fun because they can afford to risk 6bb to take someone out, and either way you're 99%-certainly the underdog.

Whereas with a good hand, you might easily get one or two limpers and the sb and bb in the pot, meaning if you win you're up to 8bb or 10bb, a substantially better position. (Plus you've got some credibility for your next shove.)

Of course, there's no guarantee that you'll get that good hand if you cling on, but the chances of getting a hand substantially better than 94o in the 14 or 15 hands it'll take you to get from 6bb to 2bb are very high indeed.

sounds a lot like "reasoning" to me. You, on the other hand, have said "I'd shove with 94o" and not given a single reasoned explanation why, and then gone into a massive sulk when someone doesn't take that as gospel. What do you think will happen? You're basically counting on being called by people with better hands (ie almost ANY hand) and miraculously sucking out on them, which is a pretty damn wobbly poker strategy in my book.

[Dice Man]

Revstu is absolutely correct here. Pete and Dan's opinion is one based only on what they've heard preached by others and they do the same themselves, and of course it's backed up by the Woodys and Waltys of the forum because they think it's cool and balla to be all in with 47s. They 're probably more convinced by this strategy because they like the way it feels to turn over 47s when their opponent turns over AKs, as if to say "Yeah, I knew I was at least 36% here...read you like a book!" Well done on still playing badly. (This opinion isn't unrelated to the frequency with which Walty is out on the first hand of a tournament, saying things like "What a donk! he couldn't fold AK pre-flop for 100 blinds!")

OK what's happened in this thread is this: As RevStu noted, Dan and Pete both failed to answer the original question. Actually their advice is something I partially agree with. I'm not pushing 23o with 8BB if it's folded to me but I might with 47s. It depends on the context of the table for one. If it's full of players who know my range here is 47s then I'm definitely not.

But the main point that they both miss is that in all these hypothetical examples, somebody else has already raised behind us. It's just pure stupidity to put all your chips in with 23o or 47s then. This question is entirely about at what point should you make a guaranteed risk of your stack, with no fold equity. At this point, as far as the stacked players on your table are concerned, you're no longer in the game. The guy who is raising doesn't even care that you push here because it's probably less than his raise. The only purpose here is to try to maximise your equity by pushing with a hand that actually has some.

Another example I forgot to mention in my first reply. Suppose you're on the button with 0-4BB, and a player in EP raises, and then a player in LP re-raises, I might push here with ATC if I think the first raiser will fold because I'm likely to be HU for about 3.5x my stack.

[RevStu]

(This opinion isn't unrelated to the frequency with which Walty is out on the first hand of a tournament, saying things like "What a donk! he couldn't fold AK pre-flop for 100 blinds!")

[RevStu]

Ok say you have 8BB's and its been folded to you on the button.

You shove with whatever you have.

70% of the time you are going to pick up the blinds showing a profit of 1.5BB (say 2.5BB as antes are included). Stu this is something that you are oblivious to from what I have noticed from previous posts of yours, this is called Fold Equity.

I'm not particularly arguing with that, and I specifically mention fold equity in one of my first replies. I understand the concept perfectly. But it's not the question that was being asked. Judi already has less than 8bbs, and someone has already raised, so her fold equity is ZERO.

[Dice Man]

I didn't even mention this because it's so obvious.

Well the original question had an obvious answer then. You and Pete came storming in here answering a completely different question. I'd agree with you on that question, but in the context of this thread it looks like you're both giving a bad answer to the original question.

Also in your calculation it looks like if there are no antes, then it's break-even to push with ATC if it's folded to you. That means there are surely some hands you can fold because there might be a few more opportunities to push with a hand better than ATC.

[S6TAV]

everybody chill

I think everybody has answered the question in their own way whether you choose to take that on board or not is up to you. Theres no need to start saying who's right and who's wrong and start c*nting each other off

Dont get me wrong If I knew a decent hand was coming I would wait but no one knows this so you will just have to pick a spot and shove with ATC.
You could hang on and be all-in due to blinds and still be playing something like 94o at which point you will just think I should of shoved earlier, at least if the hand held up i would have doubled up to a half decent amount

[RevStu]

everybody chill

I think everybody has answered the question in their own way whether you choose to take that on board or not is up to you. Theres no need to start saying who's right and who's wrong and start c*nting each other off

Dont get me wrong If I knew a decent hand was coming I would wait but no one knows this so you will just have to pick a spot and shove with ATC.
You could hang on and be all-in due to blinds and still be playing something like 94o at which point you will just think I should of shoved earlier, at least if the hand held up i would have doubled up to a half decent amount

The point I'm making, though, is that almost ANY hand is better than 94o. Even with just one more orbit you're massively odds-on to get a better hand than 94o, even if it's still only mediocre. What Dan says, quite rightly, is that ideally you want to shove any time you've got position while you have fold equity, and if that's your plan then it doesn't much matter what your cards are.

But it isn't the question that was being asked in the thread, because Judi's already down to 6bb and 6bb is rarely fold equity in any situation - and certainly not in the situation quoted here, where there are small and big stacks but no middling ones. And she specifically said "call a raise", even going so far as to put it in bold and underline it to avoid confusion - unlucky, Judi - so fold equity is irrelevant anyway.

Even if there ISN'T a raise and it gets folded round to you, the sb and bb in that situation both have decent reasons to call you whatever they have, and if you get a caller with 94o you're fucked. So it makes more sense to wait and hope to triple- or quadruple-up a smaller stack with a hand that at least has half a chance, than it does to shove with garbage that's likely to get called and lose.

[DonkBox]

Thx for supplying the math scrote, saves me firing up pokerstove

I'm sure Stu is just pulling one giant level, although he's tight (and scottish, coincidence?) i've never seen him blind down that much in a non LPL game. I reckon he's sucking you in so that in a meetup game everyone respects his shoves.

Judi one more thing I would add is that i've been known to shove blind with a c.10bb stack in late position , of course not letting others know this by feigning a look, or if you want to get sneaky just looking at one and shoving, obv repping an ace. There is an obvious downside to this but the advantages are: opponents can not read if you're strong or weak as you do not know yourself!, you push with hands you'd muck (rightly of wrongly) and also you don't try to get cute with a big hand.

Another thing I'd add is that the threshold for shoving ATC is higher in MTTs than in sit and gos, purely due to the flatter payouts and shallower stacks in sit and gos than in tournaments. Often is sit and gos you still have fold equity with five big blinds.

[wilfuljoker]

Wow, didn't know it was so controversial! Thanks for everybody's thoughts. Most of the debate has covered my dilemma. FWIW the reason I got into this mess was having called a raise on the button I had to fold post-flop, leaving me with about 8BBs. Then there was a long series of big bets before me which meant I had to keep folding. 20 min levels meant I was suddenly down to the 4BBs because of the increase in blinds. And my question was meant to be very specific about calling as opposed to being first to act and shoving (I have no probs with that at all). I know what you mean about not letting it happen and I can honestly say that it happens very rarely and usually because I lost a big pot. The key advice I take from this is: 1. Nick's point about setting the definition of "very short stack" higher in MTTs which is really helpful. 2. Calling after a raise can be ok if I think the raise (rather than my action) will make the players still to act fold. Afterall this is no different than being called by one other player because position is meaningless once you are all in.

So thanks for the effort guys (except for Dan who referred to me as "he" when most people know I'm a "she" )