Being blinded out versus calling a raise

[RevStu]

Originally Posted by PokerWoody

Does it matter what my, or anyones reasons are? You are not going to take anything anyone says on board, you have already made your mind up. We've been here too many times before.

I think limiting this thread to responses from wilfuljoker will be much more productive than responses to your trolling.

Oh fuck off. I'm the only one who's actually given any sort of reasoning for his view. Tell me WHY I'm wrong, instead of just pompously laying down the law. Try being constructive instead of just whining that I argue with people, as if it was possible for me to somehow argue with myself.

[PokerWoody]

Originally Posted by RevStu

Oh fuck off. I'm the only one who's actually given any sort of reasoning for his view. Tell me WHY I'm wrong, instead of just pompously laying down the law. Try being constructive instead of just whining that I argue with people, as if it was possible for me to somehow argue with myself.

I can not tell you why you are wrong because I am pompous and it is the law.

fwiw 'reasoning' is the wrong word. Your tripe is as far from reasoning as is possible.

[waltypies]

[RevStu]

Originally Posted by PokerWoody

I can not tell you why you are wrong because I am pompous and it is the law.

fwiw 'reasoning' is the wrong word. Your tripe is as far from reasoning as is possible.

This:

Realistically, the only way you're going to win with 94o is if you make everyone fold, since it's one of the shittest hands possible. So you'll get the blinds, lifting you from 6bb to 7.5bb, and achieving nothing more than buying yourself a free orbit to hopefully get better cards. BUT you risk being called by any reasonably good sb or bb hand and almost certainly losing - remember, you're playing short stacks and big stacks, no medium ones, so either a short stack will call you with any half-decent hand out of desperation, or a big stack will call you for fun because they can afford to risk 6bb to take someone out, and either way you're 99%-certainly the underdog.

Whereas with a good hand, you might easily get one or two limpers and the sb and bb in the pot, meaning if you win you're up to 8bb or 10bb, a substantially better position. (Plus you've got some credibility for your next shove.)

Of course, there's no guarantee that you'll get that good hand if you cling on, but the chances of getting a hand substantially better than 94o in the 14 or 15 hands it'll take you to get from 6bb to 2bb are very high indeed.

sounds a lot like "reasoning" to me. You, on the other hand, have said "I'd shove with 94o" and not given a single reasoned explanation why, and then gone into a massive sulk when someone doesn't take that as gospel. What do you think will happen? You're basically counting on being called by people with better hands (ie almost ANY hand) and miraculously sucking out on them, which is a pretty damn wobbly poker strategy in my book.

[Dice Man]

Revstu is absolutely correct here. Pete and Dan's opinion is one based only on what they've heard preached by others and they do the same themselves, and of course it's backed up by the Woodys and Waltys of the forum because they think it's cool and balla to be all in with 47s. They 're probably more convinced by this strategy because they like the way it feels to turn over 47s when their opponent turns over AKs, as if to say "Yeah, I knew I was at least 36% here...read you like a book!" Well done on still playing badly. (This opinion isn't unrelated to the frequency with which Walty is out on the first hand of a tournament, saying things like "What a donk! he couldn't fold AK pre-flop for 100 blinds!")

OK what's happened in this thread is this: As RevStu noted, Dan and Pete both failed to answer the original question. Actually their advice is something I partially agree with. I'm not pushing 23o with 8BB if it's folded to me but I might with 47s. It depends on the context of the table for one. If it's full of players who know my range here is 47s then I'm definitely not.

But the main point that they both miss is that in all these hypothetical examples, somebody else has already raised behind us. It's just pure stupidity to put all your chips in with 23o or 47s then. This question is entirely about at what point should you make a guaranteed risk of your stack, with no fold equity. At this point, as far as the stacked players on your table are concerned, you're no longer in the game. The guy who is raising doesn't even care that you push here because it's probably less than his raise. The only purpose here is to try to maximise your equity by pushing with a hand that actually has some.

Another example I forgot to mention in my first reply. Suppose you're on the button with 0-4BB, and a player in EP raises, and then a player in LP re-raises, I might push here with ATC if I think the first raiser will fold because I'm likely to be HU for about 3.5x my stack.

[RevStu]

Originally Posted by Dice Man

(This opinion isn't unrelated to the frequency with which Walty is out on the first hand of a tournament, saying things like "What a donk! he couldn't fold AK pre-flop for 100 blinds!")

[lucky_scrote]

Ok say you have 8BB's and its been folded to you on the button.

You shove with whatever you have.

70% of the time you are going to pick up the blinds showing a profit of 1.5BB (say 2.5BB as antes are included). Stu this is something that you are oblivious to from what I have noticed from previous posts of yours, this is called Fold Equity.

The other 30% of the time is how often the blinds are going to call your (roughly). Say they call you with their top 15% range which is 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+ according to pokerstove.


Out of all these hands you are a 28% favourite, not that great.

70% of the time you gain 2.5BB. 1.75
20% of the time you lose 8BB. -1.6
10% of the time you gain 10.5BB +1.05

If you were to run this hand millions of times you would make 1BB over the long run. Now to go along with this, the reason it is so dangerous to drop below much more than 6BB is that peoples calling range gets larger, to the point where if you have 3BB's then your opponents calling range should be 100%. Obviously in this 8BB's spot someones calling range could be a bit higher if they have a big stack and they are a loose player, but it even outs with the fact you get other short stacks who's calling range is much, much tighter.


Stu, I hope you can totally agree with what is said here, I don't normally do these calculations but I'm sure woody can correct me if I've made a mistake.

[RevStu]

Originally Posted by lucky_scrote

Ok say you have 8BB's and its been folded to you on the button.

You shove with whatever you have.

70% of the time you are going to pick up the blinds showing a profit of 1.5BB (say 2.5BB as antes are included). Stu this is something that you are oblivious to from what I have noticed from previous posts of yours, this is called Fold Equity.

I'm not particularly arguing with that, and I specifically mention fold equity in one of my first replies. I understand the concept perfectly. But it's not the question that was being asked. Judi already has less than 8bbs, and someone has already raised, so her fold equity is ZERO.

[lucky_scrote]

Originally Posted by Dice Man

But the main point that they both miss is that in all these hypothetical examples, somebody else has already raised behind us. It's just pure stupidity to put all your chips in with 23o or 47s then.

I didn't even mention this because it's so obvious.

[lucky_scrote]

Originally Posted by wilfuljoker

I was recently playing in a live tourney and was totally card dead. We were down to last 17 and on my table there seemed to be only short stacks and big stacks (no one in the middle). I was down to 6 BBs

Ok so wilful has said he was down to 6BB's. This isn't too far off 8BB's, but opponents calling range is slightly bigger.

Originally Posted by wilfuljoker

At what point do you call a raise with any two cards?

This is the question wilful asked Revstu, it got a quick reply saying you don't get into this situation in the first place. Sometimes you can be quite unfortunate and have someone open before you every single hand, if this happens wilful then, yeah, you are going to have to shove UTG when you get the chance.