do/dont fear the bubble

[ivanace]

played 4k gtd tour at 9pm on pcuk, 256 runners, 20 get paid. 25 left

A9o late pos with 9k.. avg on my table was 15k ish blinds 500 1000 ante 100... i was quite new to the table and seen no big pushes or all-ins...

folds round to me so i push, guy to my left insta calls.. both blinds fold... he turns AKs

i had played a good game until then but still feel this was the right thing to do??

obv no 9 landed as it would've.... if the shoe was on the other foot!

[waltypies]

Complete no brainer.

Its a push everyday of the week. Think to yourself you should have had a bigger stack!! LOL

[Dice Man]

I went out a few minutes before you. One player pushes UTG with a mini-stack. Another player raises to 5k and I insta-push for 8k with AA. Re-raiser calls. They have KJo and TT. Ten on the flop and I am fucked.

[ivanace]

agreed a bigger stack would have been better... i did run good for most of this tournie and had just lost a couple of hands taking my stack down by about 25%.. hence the need to push with the position and an A in my hand....

Although what is the range here??? A9o was good... would J4 have be good enough?????

to me any A or any pair or even KQ???

[Top Pair Ace Kicker]

It could be argued that pushing with anything here is the right move. The weaker the better.

A push with something like 7-4 getting a call would almost guarantee 2 live cards as opposed to pushing with Ace-9 which could very well be up against a stronger ace.

Course if you push with 7-4 and someone calls with a pair then its pretty much curtains....
I like curtains.

[waltypies]

agreed a bigger stack would have been better... i did run good for most of this tournie and had just lost a couple of hands taking my stack down by about 25%.. hence the need to push with the position and an A in my hand....

Although what is the range here??? A9o was good... would J4 have be good enough?????

to me any A or any pair or even KQ???

I am pretty much in favour of pushing on the button or the CO with ATC with your stack. As your on the bubble its pretty hard for anyone else to call without a monster. Your best bet is to target the stacks you can cause some trouble to. Filter out the weak and DESTROY!!!!

[Aidan77]

Only have to see the ace to shove in this spot. I think you can be a little selective here however. You have enough to throw absolute garbage away.

[RevStu]

It could be argued that pushing with anything here is the right move. The weaker the better.

A push with something like 7-4 getting a call would almost guarantee 2 live cards as opposed to pushing with Ace-9 which could very well be up against a stronger ace.

I agree with this. A9o is a fucking awful hand with three or more players still to act, you're almost guaranteed to be in deep shit against any hand someone would call with. (7-4 is pushing it a bit - I'd rather have 79 suited or even 78o or something like that. Christ, I'd rather have A3 than A9, at least you've got a shot at a straight with that.)

[PokerWoody]

I agree with this. A9o is a fucking awful hand with three or more players still to act, you're almost guaranteed to be in deep shit against any hand someone would call with. (7-4 is pushing it a bit - I'd rather have 79 suited or even 78o or something like that. Christ, I'd rather have A3 than A9, at least you've got a shot at a straight with that.)

Why?

A9 V top 25%

49.818% { A9o }
50.182% { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

79s V same range

36.127% { 97s }
63.873% { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

A9 v top 5%

29.010% { A9s, A9o }
70.990% { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }

79s V same range

28.252% { 97s }
71.748% { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }

A9 V top 3%

26.172% { A9s, A9o }
73.828% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

79s V same range

28.021% { 97s }
71.979% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


A9 V top 1%

22.023% { A9s, A9o }
77.977% { KK+ }

79s V same range

20.880% { 97s }
79.120% { KK+ }

[Top Pair Ace Kicker]

Well of course. 2-3 is rubbish!

7-4 however is the nuts, and therefore cannot fail.