Final Table Donkament hand WWUD?

[DonkBox]

We currently have an M of 18.8 and we’re chip leader with 8 remaining at the final table, top 3pay something like 1350/850/600 8th pays 140.

This is the only table I have open and have been concentrating since 5 tables out so have a good line on most players tendencies.

We don’t really like our table draw at all. The most winningest player at the table (besides ourselves) is neverwright he’s to our right but is in shove fold mode so we’re not too concerned about him yet. So far so good, but directly to my left are 1stAir and the next ‘best’ player Petit. These are both savvy and tricky and prone to re-pop late position steals and as such have been constricting our late positions steals somewhat, both at the final table and from two tables out. MccClaud (three to our left and villain in this hand) is fairly chipped up and is someone I’ve labelled ‘rich donk’ he has an average buy-in of $70 (4x higher than this tourney) and an roi of -70%. Whilst it’s possible he’s a cash stud, he aint in tournaments. He re-popped us a couple of orbits ago when we open for 6k with K-Q and he moved in for 33 total and we folded. He has since knocked a player out to chip up.

The rest of the table is made up of three players with whom I’ve only played with at the final table. From looking on OPR Ziuler and Don Toni are terribad, Jdawg is breakeven. In short we have mostly big stacks and good players to our left and mostly bad players and shorter stacks to our right. Meh.

Then this hand came up

*********** # 267 **************
PokerStars Game #15064947653: Tournament #76066926, $15.00+$1.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (1500/3000) - 2008/02/04 - 21:05:33 (ET)
Table '76066926 19' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: ziuler (28495 in chips)
Seat 3: Jdawg1143 (48390 in chips)
Seat 4: don_toni222 (86776 in chips)
Seat 5: neverwright (38380 in chips)
Seat 6: dino1980 (124298 in chips)
Seat 7: 1stAir (95446 in chips)
Seat 8: Petit (44005 in chips)
Seat 9: MccClaud (74210 in chips)
ziuler: posts the ante 300
Jdawg1143: posts the ante 300
don_toni222: posts the ante 300
neverwright: posts the ante 300
dino1980: posts the ante 300
1stAir: posts the ante 300
Petit: posts the ante 300
MccClaud: posts the ante 300
Petit: posts small blind 1500
MccClaud: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dino1980 [6h 6d]
ziuler: folds
Jdawg1143: folds
don_toni222: folds
neverwright: folds
dino1980: raises 6000 to 9000
1stAir: folds
Petit: folds
MccClaud: raises 64910 to 73910 and is all-in
dino1980: ??

If we call and win we have 207208 (out of 540,000 and IMO a lock to make top 3 where a potential deal may be discussed)
If we call and lose we have 50088 and will be 5/8 with about an M of 7.5
If we fold we have 118298 and are 1/8 with an M of 17.9
I think this guy moves in fairly wide here: QQ-55 A-9s+ K-Qs, A-Jo+ K-Qo - i've discounted A-A and K-K as I'm fairly sure he doesn't shove them in this spot.
Against that range we’re 44% (anyone think i'm way off on the ranges?)

Assume we never fold:
So roughly 4.5/10 times we gain 82910 (373095)
And 5.5/10 times we lose 68210 (375155)

And if I’ve done my sums right we make a loss of 2060 every time we make the play. Of course if we fold we know that we make a net loss of 9000.

So it seems calling is correct (my math could be way off), but I still lean towards a fold in spots like this, even though I know top three is where the money is at.

Taking everything into account what do you do in this spot? Does anyone think this is clearcut?

[PokerWoody]

I reckon if you had another 50k chips then this is a call, as it is it's a fold. Not that I know anything about donkaments mind.

[PokerWoody]

Also why haven't you included 22-55 in your range? How did he double up?

[lev1athan]

My gut feel would be that his shoving range might easily accommodate 66+
With your stack you can absorb the 9k hit IMO so I'd fold. I'd call with possibly 99 but 66 would be a bit marginal for my liking.

[DonkBox]

Also why haven't you included 22-55 in your range? How did he double up?

That's a fair point IMO as 22-44 are pretty much the same as 55 except slightly less counterfiting ops. I think the reason I left them out of my range is just from personal experience. I think i'm much more likely to re-ship with 5s and 6s in this spot whereas (and don't ask me why) 4s, 3s and 2s are insta mucks. Now I know this is bad as we're not playing ourselves but a losing donkament player whose range may include those baby pairs.

He doubled up by open shoving for 10bbs with K-K, and got called by 8-8. And yes this may indicated that I should include K-K and A-A in his range but 10bbs and 25bbs are obv v.diff propositions.

[DonkBox]

FWIW I posted on another forum and they advocate opening for 8k here instead of 9k.

[rodbuck]

I agree with James. There's a better spot to call than with 66's. Stay in front.

If you are right about how he plays then I am sure he will repeat, as he will feel he can take you off a hand and would prob marked you down as weak.

That type of player's shoulders will grow after that hand if you fold and will prob try and repop next time if you make a move, that would be the time I call as I don't think his range will be anything like it is now.

[PokerWoody]

FWIW I posted on another forum and they advocate opening for 8k here instead of 9k.

I was gonna say 7.5k!

[RevStu]

Fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold.

Surely what you're doing there with that raise is hoping for one or two flat-calls from the blinds, then to either get lucky and flop your set or try and scare the bad players away with a continuation bet if they show weakness and don't bet the flop (which they might, since they're bad). Surely, surely what you're NOT trying to do is trap someone into an all-in. So when you get one, why would you even be thinking about calling 60% of your stack with a hand that at BEST is slight favourite and at worst is a two-outer dog? I'd think very hard about calling a min-reraise there, to call an all-in is madness.

[Dice Man]

I fold it. IMO 95% of the time he either has 2 overs or an over-pair. If you call you're hoping for a race, and TBF 66 is sometimes even an underdog to two overs. Also take into account the dispositional nature of the deck to spew out high cards given that pre-flop you are holding 66 and the average quality of pre-flop hands is low (because they all folded early positions and late positions after your raise). That means that MOST 2xOvercard hands are favourites against you. I reckon your average EV in this spot if you call is about 40%.

There is also the added (psychological) factor that he is pushing from BB here. That makes him considerably weaker than pushing from SB IMO, since (given he is a donk), donks like to "defend their blinds", but really only care about their BB. Plus he is 2nd chipleader to your chipleader so there's added psychological donkiness factors in play. Even given this information it's still a fold. He probably shows something like J9s here as a bluff but I'd be glad to have folded 66 there.

Pre-flop I'm happy with the 6k raise. Are the people who are saying you should raise something else (Woody, that other forum) saying you should raise whatever else BECAUSE it's 66, or just generally? I don't think you should be betting any hands differently in the same position (same circumstances etc except hand), otherwise your range is too easily predictable. I thought that was ABC poker (cash and tournament)?