Is this a difficult spot in a satellite?

[DonkBox]

Note the ? Anyone think this is a close decision or is there a clear lean to raising/folding in this spot? I shall post results at work tomorrow.

This is from a while back so exact numbers of players left etc a little sketchy but stacks are a little deeper than usual as this is a UB re-buy satellite...

There're somewhere around 35 left and 25 get seats, we're around 6-9th in chips.

a) should we play this pre-flop? (big stacks are in the blinds), if we're going to play is the amount I raise to enough?

b) when Upay leads do we raise or fold? (I detest flat calling here) Reasons? If this is a regular tournament do you play it any differently?

Hand #44864766-210 at Fri9pmTo200K-001 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Started at 28/Jul/07 00:11:13

zomg_pwnd is at seat 0 with 45225. mclaw is at seat 1 with 43885.
prov1000 is at seat 2 with 12165.
Mr Intensity is at seat 3 with 13200.
konck is at seat 4 with 28450.
UPay2CMyNutz is at seat 5 with 40620.
anteQ is at seat 6 with 70635.
tree2957 is at seat 7 with 18510.
siihb is at seat 8 with 11930.
classyploppy is at seat 9 with 16490.
The button is at seat 3.

zomg_pwnd posts ante (150).
mclaw posts ante (150).
prov1000 posts ante (150).
Mr Intensity posts ante (150).
konck posts ante (150).
UPay2CMyNutz posts ante (150).
anteQ posts ante (150).
tree2957 posts ante (150).
siihb posts ante (150).
classyploppy posts ante (150).
UPay2CMyNutz posts the small blind of 800.
anteQ posts the big blind of 1600.

zomg_pwnd: Qh Ad
mclaw: -- --
prov1000: -- --
Mr Intensity: -- --
konck: -- --
UPay2CMyNutz: -- --
anteQ: -- --
tree2957: -- --
siihb: -- --
classyploppy: -- --

Pre-flop:

tree2957 folds. siihb folds. classyploppy folds.
zomg_pwnd raises to 4000. mclaw folds. prov1000
folds. Mr Intensity folds. konck folds.
UPay2CMyNutz calls. anteQ calls.

Flop (board: Kd Js As): (Pot 11,900)

UPay2CMyNutz bets 13500. anteQ folds. zomg_pwnd ????

[s4ooter]

hmmm tough spot indeed - tbh the sensible answer is to fold, still with chips and a good position to get your seat.
id wimp out

dont htink u should get blinded by your draw....fold fold fold be a wimp and get your seat!!!

[waltypies]

You have top pair in a donkament is that not an automatic all in?

[tfeilding]

If it was me I dont think I would fold post flop.

I wouldnt put him on a set here as I would have expected a re-raise from him pre-flop with a high pair. He may well have a low pocket pair and is hoping you have the same or he may have a hand like J10 and so has hit and has a draw.

I think if you are playing it pre-flop then you can't very well duck out when the flop hits you nicely.

But then I'm not very good at this game so what do I know?

[PokerWoody]

Why do you hate a call so much?

[tfeilding]

I'd imagine cos you don't find anything out. if he bets out for 18k or so on the turn then you are as blind as you are on the flop and if you call that you'll find yourself all-in before you know it.

[waltypies]

Looking back at this if your uncertain on what to do the best thing to do is fold. There is no need getting involved when all you need to do is finish 25th. You are already in the top 10 and only 10 more need to go. I am sure you will find a better position to get chips than this.

Fold damn you!

[Prowler]

i agree with walty on the blind evidence of the hand, more info on the player might make me raise there

if he's a tight player your behind to aa kk ak jj aj q10 your beating a10 kq or any underpair and splitting to aq,he could also be come betting the flush draw or have a made hand with a big redraw, with your stack and the available seats your not playing to win so theres no need to really play this hand out, see the flop and fold if its textured like this

[PokerWoody]

I'd imagine cos you don't find anything out. if he bets out for 18k or so on the turn then you are as blind as you are on the flop and if you call that you'll find yourself all-in before you know it.

I disagree, I think you find out plenty from a call, but with less risk than a push. Not only that, but when you 'find out' what you need to know, you are not allin and preying to the poker gods...you are in a position where you can still fold and have a healthilyish stack.

If you go all in and get called you are bluffing...or at least semi bluffing to 4 outs. You will not get called by anything that you beat when you push so you're not really pushing for value.

He is bluffing here like 75% of the time IMO, and the other 25% of the time he is doing some bizarre 'go away I have a strong hand but I want you to fold' thing. (I don't really understand what goes through a tournament players head tbh which is why i'm not particularly good at them).

So if you push here, you are heading to the rail about 25% of the time and the other 75% of the time you win what is in the pot + his bet, which is no more than you might win if you call.

If you were to call here instead, how often will he bluff a second barrel on this board in this situation? My guess is nearly never, that is a flop which connects with a lot of hands a PFR might have, so given the board texture and our stacks he has to fear our flop call. The turn would just not be a good spot for him to bluff. We don't mind giving free cards because there are no cards which will do us any particular harm and any card which improves his hand already had us beat in the first place.

Another reason to call is that if you think he IS bluffing then he is drawing very thin and we would prefer to give him the option to bluff again than we would to let him go now. I know this sounds sort of contradictory to the above point that he shouldn't bluff, but it's more of a general point and not really relevant to this particular spot so much perhaps. That is, when our opponent is drawing very thin it is normally the higher EV option to give them the chance to bluff again - this is a way ahead / way behind spot so same sort of rules apply.

So if we call and he fires again I think we can lay our hand down quite safely. However I think we will take this pot down a good % of the time at showdown with just a call on the flop.

I would say the argument that favors a raise over a call is that if this is a spot you would like to bluff at based on his flop donk and you have some history / future with this opponent.

If you think it's likely that the opponent will fire a multisteet bluff here for his stack, and also value bet a strong hand in this way, then I don't like calling but i'd prefer folding over raising. A lot of this depends on his preflop tenancies though.

However, looking at the stacks I don't see any real reason to play this hand. You are probably giving up some value by folding here, but as this is a satalite and not a standard MTT, this loss doesn't really matter. So my vote is fold, but it were an MTT i'd call here over pushing.

[PokerWoody]

if he's a tight player your behind to aa kk ak jj aj q10

Yeah, but can we really put him on any of those hands? AJ maybe I guess.