A hypotheticalish situation

[PokerWoody]

I raise from the CO with XX, button calls and everyone else folds. The button is a pretty good thinking player, plays about 19/14. We are about 150 bb’s deep.

Flop comes J46r and misses me. I bet 3/4 pot and button calls.

Turn is a Q which helps me none, I check and button bets just under 2/3 pot.

How often should we raise here?

[waltypies]

Good question i loves this stuff. These hands happen alot. I tend to just go for gut reaction and about 1/6th of the time i am repopping his ass and pray for a fold. If he calls or pushes NO MORE money is going into this pot

[PokerWoody]

Good question i loves this stuff. These hands happen alot. I tend to just go for gut reaction and about 1/6th of the time i am repopping his ass and pray for a fold. If he calls or pushes NO MORE money is going into this pot

Well, I don’t mean so much from a game theory type perspective, but of course we should sometimes bluff against our observant opponents in spots where we’d like to also value bet. (I’m assuming that’s kinda what you mean in your 1/6 answer?)

I suppose the obvious answer to this question is that we should raise this more the more we believe he has been floating us. But that aside, I think this is a pretty sweet spot for a bluff and my initial reaction is that we should be raising this a lot, like 80% of the time or something with an average history.

The stack sizes and the turn card I think make this a great spot for bluffing. I mean if we look at some of the key facts in the hand:

- He has a wide range preflop to call our raise (even though he is a tight player) because of his position and our stack sizes
- Most big hands and sometimes draws will raise the flop given our stack sizes, JJ+ would likely reraise preflop.
- The flop figures to have missed our hand more than it hits it.
- Most mid strength hands and draws will check behind on the turn for pot control / showdown or for a free card.
- The Queen doesn’t figure to have improved his hand. JQ is about the only hand which improves his hand and we have next to no fold equity against.
- If he is betting a mid strength hand like a Jack or 99, he is likely planning to fold to a raise.
- A check raise sets us up for a river push which is exactly how we might play a big hand here (even though we will likely check fold the river in this case). So check raising lets us make the killer bet where we ask him if he really wants to play for stacks.

So his line seems to be consistent with a weakish hand, and if we check raise our line is consistent with a very strong hand. He is a thinking player remember, not Mr Average Donk. Of course this doesn’t mean he is never going to have a monster, or he is never going to make a dodgy call with a marginal hand on the turn, but in terms of EV, raising *appears* (to me at least) to be better than both calling and folding.

If we say there is £22 in the middle by the time we get to the turn, I check and he bets £14 then our raise is going to be to about £48 (if he calls there will be £118 in the middle and £91 in our stacks). We are risking £48 to win £36, which means we need him to fold 57% of the time to break even, if he folds anymore than that the we make a profit. This calculation assumes we don’t have any outs too, if we have a hand like AK then we have some nut outs plus some overcards which might be good some percentage of the time.

Plus, knowing we can bluff here also might offer us some future EV should we have a monster in this spot and also encourages him to play a little more straight forwardly and not use his position against us so much.

I know this post is a little one sided but what do you think?

[waltypies]

Raising here is a pretty good play but just because its good its not necessarliy the correct one.

I agree with your points about his range being huge but what is he calling the flop with?? Surely he has hit a part of that flop to call with. Now like you said the Q is to have unlikely to improved his hand but its unlikely that it is improving our (as it does in the example).

Now from my experience of things is that the player in question is going to take that check as weakness. Our re raise is going to show nothing but bluff bluff bluff to him IMO. Therefore he is more likely to push our bet which means we are fooked more than a cheap hooker. Anyway thats why i will check fold here. Then every so often when this happens raise but mine would be more like 20% of the time as it would show more strength as it do not normally do it.

[PokerWoody]

I agree with your points about his range being huge but what is he calling the flop with?? Surely he has hit a part of that flop to call with.

Yes, what hand does he call the flop with then bet that turn? He can call the flop with hands like 99, AJ, maybe JT, and possibly even something like 67 with just a gutshot, but out of all those hands there are very few where he calls the flop then leads the turn for value. What hands are you putting him on?

Now like you said the Q is to have unlikely to improved his hand but its unlikely that it is improving our (as it does in the example).

Now from my experience of things is that the player in question is going to take that check as weakness. Our re raise is going to show nothing but bluff bluff bluff to him IMO.

Why does it look like a bluff? hands like JJ & QQ make much more sense for us than they do for him.

[waltypies]

What hands are you putting him on?

AJ, KJ, QJ, J10, J9, Ax etc

Why does it look like a bluff? hands like JJ & QQ make much more sense for us than they do for him.

95% of players check trips on the flop as they are nobs

[PokerWoody]

AJ, KJ, QJ, J10, J9, Ax etc

Exactly, and how many of those hands will call a raise?

95% of players check trips on the flop as they are nobs

Yeah, mabye. But our read is that he is a pretty good player. Good players don't check trips on the flop.

[waltypies]

Exactly, and how many of those hands will call a raise?

Yeah, mabye. But our read is that he is a pretty good player. Good players don't check trips on the flop.

6 handed or 10?