AKs - Call all in, or fold?

[PokerWoody]

CO is a bit of a spaz, overvalues his own ability at the game tremendously and has nitish tendencies. One of those people who believes he is the best player at the table and just ‘unlucky a poker’. His is playing at 32/6 over 60 odd hands.

I have been pretty aggressive, this isn’t the first time I’ve 3 bet from the button but I haven’t been going to crazy with it. I’m 23/19

NL100 6 handed

CO has $73, I cover.

Folded to CO who raises to $4, I reraise to $12 with AK, blinds fold, CO pushes so it’s $61 for me to call with another $22.50 already in the pot (after rake).

Call or fold?

RR bad against this stack?

[Andrew PI]

I think you should call for the value Woody.

[Raiser]

Fold, he is playing mind games with you and has AA.

[FirePhil]

Fold. Unless you think he's enough of a spaz to do this with a weaker ace. You're usually racing a lot of the time and dominated the rest, it looks almost neutral EV against something like TT+, AK. Maybe call given the description of the player as they're probably busting out their 'moves' more than the typical donk. Not enough in it to worry either way IMO, but I suppose calling and losing results in an idiot having money to lose so that might help swing a call.

I don't have a problem with the RR.

[PokerWoody]

This is really just a maths question and really depends on what we think the CO’s range is, hence probably not the easiest to give an answer to over an internet forum! My guess is that his range is pretty tight given my read, he’s a 32/6 so he limps a lot and raises rarely and as I think he’s a bit of a nit, then I think he’ll fold to my 3bet quite a bit. Pushing a big hand here preflop is also exactly the sort of play I’d expect from a nit, not that it’s necessarily a bad play to 4 bet all in with aces or kings, but its far from being the best play against a player like me.

As for calling or folding...

Our breakeven percentage is – (Amount to call / Total Pot size after our call). So 61 / (61 + 61 + 22.5) = 42.2%

So we should fold against these ranges

KK+,AKs,AKo = 40%
QQ+,AKs,AKo = 41.9%

As soon as we can add in JJ, or especially hands like AQ, then it becomes a marginal call.

JJ+,AKs+,AKo = 42.8%

QQ+,AQs+,AKo = 45.5%
QQ+,AQs+,AQo+ = 46.2%

So it’s going to be marginal either way. I folded, but I hate folding AKs preflop becuase it's the nuts. Also at the time I felt it was very close and as i'd been running bad and was due to stop soon I wanted to book a win.

[jjh]

I think calling all in here you're just letting luck play too much of a part over an entire stack.

Raising $12, characters like this see it as an invitation to push all in- annoying for sure.

AK is a nice hand but not an all in hand pre flop in a cash game.

Folding was the right thing to do once he pushed you all in.

What are the odds of catching a pair- 2/1 approx? That makes calling all in pre flop a ridiculous notion as any pair he has is big favourite over you, considiering the pot is just $22.50, surely the odds to call are not there?

I think best thing to do against these all in 'nits' is to just call their pre flop bet- you can push from the flop if you hit.

[POB666]

Id fold, like a cheap ironing board.

[PokerWoody]

AK is a nice hand but not an all in hand pre flop in a cash game.

Oh yes it is!!

Folding was the right thing to do once he pushed you all in.

only just and even thats debatable, see earlier post

[POB666]

Yeah but jjh would fold aces pre-flop.

[FirePhil]

What are the odds of catching a pair- 2/1 approx? That makes calling all in pre flop a ridiculous notion as any pair he has is big favourite over you

Are you actually trying to outdo your folding AA pre-flop in cash game poll in terms of wrongness?