How would you play this hand?
I know there's been a few of these before, but I'd be interested to hear views on how you would play this hand:
The hand in question is one I was involved in on VC Poker UK lasty night.
I was on a cash table; 1 and 2 Dollar Blinds.
I was in the small Blind. I was dealt Ks Qs Everyone folded around to the guy to my right who raised to 4 Dollars total. I called, as did the big blind, so we have three players.
THE FLOP
Qd Qh 9s
So I've flopped trips. I check. The big blind checks. The guy to my right bets $4. I think about it then raise to $6. The big blind calls. The guy to my right (obviously on a steal) then folds. Now there are two players left. Total current pot is $28
THE TURN
9c
I now have a full house. I check. The big blind checks.
THE RIVER
7d
I bet $6. The big blind goes all in. A total of $122! I have this covered with about 5 dollars more.
I have noticed this guy overrate a few hands already, when better hands have been possible, but he'd won each one. He'd been at the table for about an hour. He also seemed to be playing premium pockets cards only
So the question is, what do you do? I'll tell you what I did in a bit
I'd call it, but then I don't allow myself on cash tables for that reason. The way you've played the hand he has to put you on a queen as far as I can tell, unless he interprets the pot-builder bets as a weakish "I have a 9" style bet. Surely he would've re-raised pre-flop with 99 as its not that strong against two opponents. I also think if he'd flopped the full house he would've re-raised you on the flop. Normally one would slow play it, but seeing as you re-raised somebody else, you must feel confident with what you have, and so I'd expect a re-re-raise on the flop to be called by you, thus building my pot.
My conclusion: 5% he has 99, you lose lots
15% he has a queen it'll be split.
80% he has nothing and wants to scare you away. It's possible you'd be scared away if you had the queen and very probable you'd fold if you had a 9 so good chance he's doing this.
Therefore call= POSITIVE EV +++++++++++
putting down a q's over 9's fh is a very hard thing to do in that situation.....
he has either made a hand from the flop and not wanted to scare everyone off, if he has 9-9 or Q-9 its safe to assume he wants people to make hands so they bet against his weak play, if noone bets he just lumps in at the end
personally the way he's played it makes me think 9-9, the fourth nine showing has confirmed to him he cant be beaten and gone for it....shame you didnt have the other q
knowing me i would have called but expected the worst and folding q-9 fh to never know would drive me mad so i guess the 100 dollars would be paying for my sanity even if i lost it
That doesn't make sense, you can't raise to $6 after a $4 bet.Originally Posted by Matty H
It's a big overbet on the river, it looks like you're splitting it most of the time though it's a good play if he has 99. There's a chance that they've played KK or AA horribly though, I probably call here. I think Diceman's a bit optimistic with 80% he has nothing though, I'd say nearer 10% 99, 60% the other Q and 30% you have him beat. By my reckoning:
(.1 * -$116) + (.6 * + $20) + (.3 * + $156) = +$47.2
Still pretty huge +EV.
I'm calling. I think I'd revise Dicemans percentage to 5% 9's 80% Q and 15% nothing and guess you split the pot.
No way I am laying this down.
I dont like his bet at all, but for £45. Im calling.
Either I read it wrong or it's $116 to call. Still don't think you can lay it down.
its actually 65.41 in sterling or 116 in dollars
You obviously get more pounds for your dollars these days. Whatever. I'm not folding.
its a double nightmare to try and read the hand.....1stly the guy is in the bb which means he could have anything, with only a small raise preflop you know he aint playing rubbish but its at least a small pair, suited conns, or high cards
2ndly... everyone plays pocket pairs differently, some make a small raise and some limp em in and a few go mad so unless you seen how he plays pockets you got no idea whats in there
from the betting you would assume preflop he has a playable hand, post flop matt and the guy to the right have both bet and raised and he's straight called, so already he has called a raise preflop and called a raise post flop without giving much away about his hand, he's getting cash in the pot without asking any questions
the stealer is out and the turn card is a handmaker for one of you or both of you......with 28 in the pot why check? (i make it there should be 32 in there) you've already called a preflop raise and raised a post flop bet, you've obviously got a hand so why slow play now? a decent size bet after the turn will give you a good idea of what he's got....fold means a bluff obv, a call would signify some sort of hand and a raise is either a crazy bluff given the way you've played so far or a very strong hand
with a card to come and the fact you put a big bet out i doubt he would raise all in, he must put you on a queen and even with 9-9 theres always that doubt you might have q-q or the queen will hit the river, also your bet plus the fact you called his raise would possibly be enough to make him hold back on the all in after the river, unless he did have 9-9 in which case the fact you didnt reraise his raise tells him you didnt have q-q so he'd feel safe going all in
Definite call for me, although his raise would have me thinking about it rather than just throwing the cash in immediately!
As Phil said, he could have just played a large pocket pair horribly, seen it quite a lot in online cash games...
Come on... tell us!!! Are you rich(er)?
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