Chasing the flush

[Matty H]

We must have all been in this situation. Your hole cards are suited connectors, or close to that. You get the chance to limp in or call a favourable raise. The flop brings out over cards on your hole cards, but importantly it also brings out another two cards of the same suit as your hole cards.

My question is, how do you then play it? If you're in position (last to act) and it's been checked round, do you raise? Or do you take the chance to see the turn for free? Personally I would check. Any thoughts? What happens if someone has raised after the flop? At what stage does that raise become too much to call? How much of your stack would you be willing to risk on a draw? Technically with two cards to come you have about a 50% chance of making your flush.

I am often guilty of chasing the flush when I have made four cards on the flop. Often it seems to pay off, but I sometimes wonder if I am giving this type of hand to much credit and perhaps I should be mucking it to a big raise on the flop

Thoughts?

[Terminator]

I often find myself in this position, I think a lot of players can relate to this. It's always difficult to know where you draw your line. You have to take in to consideration what else is out there. What can the flop do for other players? What cards are on the flop, regardless of your flush draw? Are you holding 2 overs? or 1 over? Do you have a possible straight draw too? If you miss how many outs are you left with? If you bet and are called, and you miss the river, can you put another bet in? Or call a bet to try and hit the river?
If it is checked round, I tend to put in a raise, about 30 to 40% of the pot, (if I'm holding overs) see who calls, and then try and put them on a hand. If there is a re-raise, then it depends on how much for, and what all the cards are whether I call or fold.
This is always one of the worst decisions to make in poker (for me), how much do you chase. And for me, it always depends on the cards, not just the suits. But I don't think there is a definate way to play it, (or any other hand in poker for that matter), you have to go with your own assesment of the situation in hand. Does that make sense? (it sounded better in my head!).

[Top Pair Ace Kicker]

I think it is almost impossible to answer this generally. What connectors do you hold? if you are saying overcards are on the flop you might be holding 3-4 or 10-J is this important to your decision? It should be, surely, because even if you are chasing a flush with low cards you could still be beaten by a higher flush.

Thats just the first question.

Other things come into play such as chip stacks, how close to the money are you, etc etc. I might make two completely different decisions depending on factors other than just chasing the flush.

*generally* though I think I would prefer to see the card for free if it has been checked round, but I wouldnt like to say I would play it like that every time.

[Matty H]

Yes, I was working on the basis of holding a decent pair of pocket cards. 10-J, 10-Q, J-Q, all suited obviously. The chances of being beaten by the better flush with this sort of pair are unlikely, particularly if any of the cards on the board of the same suit are above yours. I'm not convinced your chip stack comes into it so much if you are making the bet. Whether you are chip leader or short stacked if you make a bet and someone else is holding the nuts then you're going to be called or raised. It's if you're raised before you act that I sometimes struggle with in this particular case. If someone bets you half your stack with two cards to come and you're already holding 4 cards to a big flush, do you call or raise or fold? Let's assume that the person you are up against has a similar chip stack to you. Even with over cards on the board you would be entitled to assume that if you make your flush you will win the pot. Would the other player make a large bet on a draw? Probably not so you would have to assume they already have a made hand of some sort. The question is - do you fancy 2 cards making your flush? Is it theoretically a 50% chance? You have no idea what anyone else has so if you assume that no one else has one of your suited cards then you have good odds. But on the other hand everyone might have one of the cards you are waiting for making your flush draw a remote chance. If I'm one on one with two cards to come I am always very tempted to call, and often do. Still not sure if I'm doing the right thing

[FirePhil]

Technically with two cards to come you have about a 50% chance of making your flush.

A flush draw is just under 35%, plus you will probably have other ways of winning the pot other than the flush so it will likely be a couple of percent more than that.

[Matty H]

A flush draw is just under 35%, plus you will probably have other ways of winning the pot other than the flush so it will likely be a couple of percent more than that.

Isn't that a percentage before the cards are dealt though Phil? there are an equal number of all suits in the pack, so if you have 2 spades for instance, and no one else has a spade, then there is surely a better than 35% chance of catching the flush with two cards to come? in theory every fourth card could be a spade, so with two cards to come you have a 50/50 chance. I know it's not that clear cut, and you also hold two of the cards in your hand, but I'm trying to get this clear in my mind

You may be right, I'm just not clear on that figure

[Matty H]

You see this is what I love/hate (depending on which side of the hand I've been on) about Poker. You can figure out odds until the cows come home, yet there's nothing to say the next 11 cards out of the deck wont all be clubs Likewise they may be the last 11 cards in the deck. Extreme analogy, but you get my drift

[trustme]

this can be an expensive habit, if you are calling with suited cards and you are left needing one more after the flop, you have got what you are looking for.
If i can i try to get the cards for free, most times this isnt possible because other players will see the chance of the flush and raise to put someone off the chase.

[resigner]

Dont believe its a 50/50 chance (havnt got time to read the entire thread so sorry if Im repeating someone elses post), believe its a 34% chance because there are already 4 of the suit you needs out. Its a dodgy call, depends on how bug the pot is, but Id almost always check it if theres a lot of players in, hit the hand, and you want as many people in as possible to max your win, why force them out for a small pot when you can win a large one.........

Heads up late on with big blinds its a different matter though, Id be betting it almost certainly.

[PokerWoody]

I'm glad I play with some of you guys! This thread makes me happy

Seriously though, I think TPTK is spot on...it simply depends on too much. General rule - never chase, call when you have odds to do so and fold other with....or reraise all in of course