A river desicion
I'm in the SB with KK, UTG+1 is the villain and is 18/14/2 after 26 hands. I hadn't noticed villain too much so apart from his stats I have no other reads about his play...not good after 26 hands but thats multitabling for you!
Seat 1: Button sits out
Seat 2: SB ($242 in chips)
Seat 3: BB ($23.81 in chips)
Seat 4: UTG ($36 in chips)
Seat 5: UTG+1 ($124 in chips)
Seat 6: CO ($119.50 in chips)
SB: posts small blind $1
BB: posts big blind $2
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to SB [Kc Kh]
UTG: folds
UTG sits out
UTG+1: raises to $6
CO: folds
UTG sits back
SB: raises to $22
BB: folds
UTG+1: calls $16
----- FLOP ----- [2s As 7h] (Pot $47)
SB: bets $30
UTG+1: calls $30
----- TURN ----- [2s As 7h][Qc] (Pot $107)
SB: checks
UTG+1: checks
----- RIVER ----- [2s As 7h Qc][Ks] (Pot $107, UTG+1 has $72 left)
Comments on any part of the hand welcome. I'm specifialy looking for feedback on the river tho. What's your play here and why?
tricky one
my first thought about the river is that you have to bet, its the only way to stop an all in bluff, representing the flush or straight that is possible with the community cards.
the way the hand was played out looks like your opponent was on a draw, flat calling the bet on the flop and then taking the free card but they called your preflop raise which "should" mean that they have a premium hand, aa,ak,qq.
I would have ruled out the flush draw quite early and the only hand to be really worried about would be being up against aa, them having better trips. that is in an ideal world though...im dying to know what they had! was it 10-j off or the monster 8-4s?!?!?!?
Not sure what you're looking for here Woody?
If I'm reading your table right then you have made trip K's on the River?
Assuming the flush or straight is in your mind? Spade flush possibly made on the river by your opponent, then I guess you are looking for a betting strategy as the first to act?
Would a player have called a $30 raise on a draw? Possibly depending on the player and the fact there are two cards to come. The check on the turn could possibly indicate a player running out of chances and taking the chance to see the river for free.
As with so many hands of poker you could argue there is no right or wrong answer, although checking would indicate weakness. If you checked and he raised all in for $72, would you be able to call? Quite possibly not. I think you need to make a bet of some sort. I would bet half his stack. If, *IF* he then reraises you all in it may be time to toss it away. However, you might not be blamed for thinking that he sees himself as pot committed, he's on a rush and thinks he can knock you off the pot with his reraise. He may be thinking - 'if he has the nuts why didn't he put me in for all my chips' at the same time he may be thinking that you didn't simply to get a call rather than he folds.
There's no easy answer to this in my opinion Woody. As I said though, I'd bet half his stack then take it from there.
Would love to know the outcome of this hand though
Matt Hewlett
I would bet 30. Wait for the re-raise, call and take his 2 pair to the cleaners.
If you lose this pot you are going to be unlucky. To make the straight or flush means he has called you raise with at best QJ or everyones favourite J-T not the sort of play I personally do, but I suspect others may do. I put him on either A-K or A-Q, with the even better possibilty (for you) of Q-Q. All of which means he is going to be putting his chips in. I suspect that he also knows that you do not have the flush, so a feeler bet on the river would see him crashing all in over the top.
I should add that I don't think villain is on a draw. As the Ace of spades is out I think it makes a flush draw very unlikely (especially when the Ks appears on the end) and there are no other draws on the flop for him to be calling with. He has a made hand in my view, it's just a question of which one is it?
I posted this hand just after I'd played it as I thought I played the river badly. Having thought about it further I'm not sure I actually played it that badly.
Anyway, on the river I have several options.
Check Call
Check Fold
Block\Value bet
All in
Out of these options I like Check Call and Block the best although I’m not sure which one I prefer. I also think his stack size makes this slightly awkward to play, if it was any smaller or any bigger my decision becomes a little easier.
So far we have two votes for Block...how much are you going to put out for a block bet and will you fold to a raise? What makes you chose blocking over check calling in this spot?
I'll post the results later.
I think the EV difference between check-calling and value betting is probably pretty small but I think value betting is the better option. Say you bet $30:
AA raises, you lose $72.
QQ raises, you win $72.
AK-AQ calls, you win $30.
AK-AQ raises (very bad play IMO), you win $72.
I can't see JT here against a tight player.
Check-calling:
AA you lose ~$30.
QQ you win ~$30.
AK-AQ you win ~$30 or $0.
Him checking behind with AK-AQ is very possible and probably the correct play IMO, the only way it's +EV is if he has AK and you have AQ.
Value betting looks good to me and I'm calling a raise.
Value betting looks good to me too. What does 18/14/2 relate to
Mark
18% VP$IP (Percentage of hands they voluntarily put money in the pot)Originally Posted by Maintop
Value betting looks good to me too. What does 18/14/2 relate to
Mark
14% PFR (Percentage of hands they raised pre-flop)
2 BB/100 (Their win rate per 100 hands)
At least that's what I took them to be.
Id put him on something like a 10. Hes called your preflop reraise so he doesnt have AA because he should raised your reraise as your signalling a good hand, so he has Ace high kicker. The $6 preflop bet was a bet to see if anyone had something good, and the call is to see a flop as hes in for $6 anyway he may as well see a flop. Hes flat called you post flop as hes hit his ace and you possibly have ak, aq or aj.
So the correct bet is about half the pot to stop the bluff and get some value.
If you tell me he had 72 off im gonna be annoyed!!!!!!!
Oh and if he was calling ona flush draw Ill be surprised and mark him as a fool as he wasnt getting pot odds.................
The 2 equates to their post flop aggression factor, > 2 is considered to be aggressive. My stats at the time were 27/12/14 but I'd only played about 60 hands!!!
Everything else is right.
Posting Permissions
LinkBack URL
About LinkBacks
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks