Strange Probability in the number of jackpot winners

[Spot]

It could be my lack of formal understanding of statistics and probabilities, but can anyone find flaws in my calculation and observation below (6/49 lotto) ?

If 44 ticket holders have matched 5 numbers so far while checking their numbers, how many (among the 44) is expected to match the 6th winning number ? My answer is 1.

To put the question in another way, if the great Oracle gave you 5 winning numbers and told you to randomly choose the 6th number, what is the probability that you will hit the correct 6th winning number ? My answer is 1 in 44, or you can keep pressing the randomise button on the remaining 44 number up to 44 times...

In other words, for every 43 five-number winners, we can expect 1 jackpot winner.

Now look at the actual results of winners in the UK National Lotto:

- Sat 08 Oct 11 - 636 Match 5 (including 5+bonus), NO jackpot winner.

- Wed 05 Oct 11 - 261 Match 5, NO jackpot winner.

- Sat 01 Oct 11 - 595 Match 5, 1 jackpot winner.

- Wed 28 Sep 11 - 217 Match 5, NO jackpot winner.

- Sat 24 Sep 11 - 451 Match 5, 1 jackpot winner.

The same trend for all previous results, and most likely other similar lottery games around the world.

I'm puzzled.

[greencobra7]

noticed this very same thing months ago.could not find an answer

[Spot]

Answering my own question, I have figured out that because there are 6 ways to combine 5 numbers from 6, therefore statistically we can expect only 1 jackpot winner out of every 264 tickets that matched at least 5 winning numbers.

Lottery is soooo difficult to win...