Ok say you have 8BB's and its been folded to you on the button.
You shove with whatever you have.
70% of the time you are going to pick up the blinds showing a profit of 1.5BB (say 2.5BB as antes are included). Stu this is something that you are oblivious to from what I have noticed from previous posts of yours, this is called Fold Equity.
The other 30% of the time is how often the blinds are going to call your (roughly). Say they call you with their top 15% range which is 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+ according to pokerstove.
Out of all these hands you are a 28% favourite, not that great.
70% of the time you gain 2.5BB. 1.75
20% of the time you lose 8BB. -1.6
10% of the time you gain 10.5BB +1.05
If you were to run this hand millions of times you would make 1BB over the long run. Now to go along with this, the reason it is so dangerous to drop below much more than 6BB is that peoples calling range gets larger, to the point where if you have 3BB's then your opponents calling range should be 100%. Obviously in this 8BB's spot someones calling range could be a bit higher if they have a big stack and they are a loose player, but it even outs with the fact you get other short stacks who's calling range is much, much tighter.
Stu, I hope you can totally agree with what is said here, I don't normally do these calculations but I'm sure woody can correct me if I've made a mistake.
|