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fergus lee · 27th February 2008, 11:07 PM

Hi Croup
Yes,I did interpret your post as having a go at me and responded in kind.Suggesting that someone is delusionist is hardly a compliment, is it ? However, lets get down to meaningful discussion.
If Blaise Pascal can establish an edge in another area ( a die ) which is also random and has a fixed 5/1 Fair Odds is it really delusional to think that this might be possible in roulette? .
I acknowledge that you have expertise in roulette but that doesn't necessarily make you an expert.No offence intended ,just a statement of fact. I have discussed roulette with croupiers who did not kow that 2 guys , betting the same numbers , could be offered different odds. I could also make a reasonable case that the odds on an even-money bet are not as you say.Further I could pose a question on roulette that you quite possibly cannot answer.But I'll leave that for another time as you haven't yet cottoned on to my four chip bet.My fault for not going into detail . Incidentally, Croup,you could bet on the HIGH BORES by using four splits.The 28 in your post is an even number. Since this post may be read by others less knowledgeable of roulette than you and I'll try and keep it as simple as possible. So, here goes.
Consider only the even- money bets .Low / High, Red / Black and Odd / Even.Betting three of them, hoping that we win a treble, we need to choose from eight variations,these are,
Black, Odd, Low Black,Even, LOw
Black ,Odd,High Black, Even ,High
Red ,Even,LOw Red,Odd, LOw
Red, Even ,HIgh Red, Odd, High

Choosing, say, Red, Even ;High, we would seek Fair Odds of 7/1 because this is only one of the eight variations.For the treble to win we need any one of the numbers ,30-32- 34- or 36 to win.
If we bet only those four numbers on the layout and one of them win we get odds of 8/1 which is -allowing for zero- an advantage of about 11% .Which I agree, seems nonsense but is dictated by Probability maths.( I think )
Crucial to my argument is that the Wheel is truly random, but since mathematicians constantly tell us this is true I take this as a Given.
Not being a mathematician I could be wrong ,Croup, but I don't think so.What do you think ?
Regards, Fergus

27th February 2008, 11:07 PM	#9 (permalink)
fergus lee Rank: Member Last Online: 8th July 2008 02:40 PM Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 43	random thoughts on roulette Hi Croup Yes,I did interpret your post as having a go at me and responded in kind.Suggesting that someone is delusionist is hardly a compliment, is it ? However, lets get down to meaningful discussion. If Blaise Pascal can establish an edge in another area ( a die ) which is also random and has a fixed 5/1 Fair Odds is it really delusional to think that this might be possible in roulette? . I acknowledge that you have expertise in roulette but that doesn't necessarily make you an expert.No offence intended ,just a statement of fact. I have discussed roulette with croupiers who did not kow that 2 guys , betting the same numbers , could be offered different odds. I could also make a reasonable case that the odds on an even-money bet are not as you say.Further I could pose a question on roulette that you quite possibly cannot answer.But I'll leave that for another time as you haven't yet cottoned on to my four chip bet.My fault for not going into detail . Incidentally, Croup,you could bet on the HIGH BORES by using four splits.The 28 in your post is an even number. Since this post may be read by others less knowledgeable of roulette than you and I'll try and keep it as simple as possible. So, here goes. Consider only the even- money bets .Low / High, Red / Black and Odd / Even.Betting three of them, hoping that we win a treble, we need to choose from eight variations,these are, Black, Odd, Low Black,Even, LOw Black ,Odd,High Black, Even ,High Red ,Even,LOw Red,Odd, LOw Red, Even ,HIgh Red, Odd, High Choosing, say, Red, Even ;High, we would seek Fair Odds of 7/1 because this is only one of the eight variations.For the treble to win we need any one of the numbers ,30-32- 34- or 36 to win. If we bet only those four numbers on the layout and one of them win we get odds of 8/1 which is -allowing for zero- an advantage of about 11% .Which I agree, seems nonsense but is dictated by Probability maths.( I think ) Crucial to my argument is that the Wheel is truly random, but since mathematicians constantly tell us this is true I take this as a Given. Not being a mathematician I could be wrong ,Croup, but I don't think so.What do you think ? Regards, Fergus __________________
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